聚烯烃日报：装置停车，开工负荷走低

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性。聚烯烃多套装置停车检修，开工率走低，维持中等偏下水平。原油价格连续反弹后偏弱震荡，丙烷价格亦有回落，成本支撑走弱。终端淡季下游需求维持弱势，基本面仍偏承压，上中游库存去化速度仍偏缓慢，石化库存周末正常累库。贸易商多让利出货为主，下游拿货意愿一般。预计维持区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存78万吨（4）。 基差方面，LL华东基差在20元/吨，PP华东基差在-20元/吨。 联系人 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油价格连续反弹后偏弱震荡，丙烷价格亦有回落。辽阳石化30 PP装置、中海壳牌30 PP装置重启。燕山石化7 PE装置、连云港石化40 PE装置、神华宁煤20PP装置、神华宁煤30PP装置、燕山石化12PP装置停车检修。聚烯烃开工负荷走低。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口盈亏平衡附近。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................................