碳酸锂周度报告：进口压力维持高位，盘面价格跌破前低

陈祎萱CFA有色金属分析师从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：看跌2024年6月23日 上周锂盐价格继续下探。LC2407收盘价环比-5.2%至9.19万元/吨 ，LC2411收 盘 价 环 比-4.6%至9.65万 元/吨 ；SMM电 池 级（99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-3.7%、-4.2%至9.49、9.05万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-0.5%至9.6万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂同步下挫，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-4.4%、-4.1%至8.46、9.03万元/吨。电工价差环比略走阔至0.44万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比略走阔至1.03万元/吨。 据海关总署，5月中国进口碳酸锂2.46万吨，环比增加0.34万吨或16%，今年1-5月共进口碳酸锂8.68万吨，同比增加2.64万吨或44%。矿端方面，5月进口的锂矿石约合5.56万吨LCE，其中自澳大利亚的进口增量较为显著。 至上周五，LC2411的持仓量已超过LC2407，主力合约平稳换月，进入7月前，LC2407的投机头寸仍将减仓离场或换月，但其对绝对价格的影响或逐步转弱。向后看，基本面供增需减的格局短期内难见改善，同时仓单集中注销、工碳货源的增加将给7月的现货市场带来一定压力，叠加客供及长协比例仍维持高位、下游买盘不振，短期价格或仍难言企稳。但从盈亏比角度出发，当前点位已不再适合追空，前期空单可视月差及现货情况分批止盈。考虑到价格下跌后，锂盐加工环节的利润已快速收缩至盈亏平衡附近，建议关注8月附近供应短期见顶后的潜在反弹机会。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、进口压力维持高位，盘面价格跌破前低...........................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货价格略降........................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：LC2407跌破前低...................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：材料端报价环降........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：5月新能源车市占率近40%...............................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价........................................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-LC2406）.................................................................................................................................7图表8：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：523方形三元电芯（动力