特斯拉2024股东大会机器人部分纪要20240614

今年年底或明年初进行重要硬件修正，并预计25年能实现1000台以上的机器人在特斯拉工厂执行任务。目前已经有2个机器人在佛雷蒙特工厂执行具体任务，比如分拣电池等。 【马斯克演讲内容#关于机器人】 我认为人形机器人与人类的比例可能是2~1，至少肯定是1比1，这意味着市场规模将达到100亿，也许200或300亿个机器人。 And I think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will probably at least 2~1， something like that， 1 to 1 for sure， which means like somewhere on the order of 10 billion， maybe 20or 30. 我认为人形机器人的出货最终可能会达到每年10亿个左右，如果特斯拉有 10% 的份额，且我们能以1万美元的成本制造，并以2万美元的售价卖出去，那特斯拉基本上每年会从中赚取约1万亿美元的利润。 I think the rate will be probably something ultimately like 1 billion a year， humanoid robots like actually if Tesla just has a 10% sure of that， it might be a lot more than 10% who make the 100 million optimists units a year. I just for reference， the auto industry isroughly 100 million vehicles per year. So that sort of similar all parties with an order of magnitude. And I think we could make one for a cost of maybe at really high scale of about $10，000. It’s smaller if be less expensivethan a car. I think if you sold for sell for$20，000 something， this is at large scale volume， Tesla would basically make about $1 trillion of profit a year from that.因此，如果市盈率是 20 或 25 ，则意味着仅 Optimus 的市值就达到 20 万亿美元，而自动驾驶汽车的市值可能达到 5 到 10 万亿美元。我认为这实际上是可以想象的。 So If the price earnings multiple is， say， ona 20 or 25 or something like that， would mean a $20 trillion market cap from optimus alone and probably 5 to 10 from autonomous vehicles. Like I think it’s actually conceivable.It’s worth within the realm of possibility for Tesla to achieve evaluation 10 times that of the most valuable company today. 我认为，Optimus 的市值是 25 万亿美元；到达那里需要做大量的工作，虽然很困难，但我们沿着这条路前进得非常快。我们会让它发生。Optimus， I think， is a $25 trillion dollar market cap situation； It’s an immense amount ofwork that is required to get there， like super difficult， but we’re moving very fast downthat road. We’re gonna make it happen.我们与Optimus在短时间内取得了巨大的进步。从一个相当僵硬的机器人到一个今天在工厂里执行实际任务的机器人，已经有2个 Optimus 机器人在弗里蒙特工厂执行有用的任务，它们正在执行一些基本任务，即取出生产线末端的电池并将它们放入运输集装箱中。We’ve made it a massive amount of progress with optimists in a short period of time from someone pretending to be a robot dancing in asuit. To a pretty hard party robot to a robot that is actually doing useful tasks in thefactory today. So we have two optimist robotsin our Freemont factory that are doing basically this task， which is taking cells of theend of the line and placing them in a shipping container. Yeah， but we actually have quitea few of these cruising around our officersin Palo Alto.我们将在今年年底或明年初完成一项重大硬件修订。然后我们明年将进行有限生产，供我们的工厂使用……明年我们将有超过一千个，可能是几千个 Optimus 机器人在特斯拉工作。 We have one major hardware revision—will be d one by end of this year or early next. Then we’ll move into limited production next year，for use in our factories… Next year we’ll have over a thousand， may be a few thousand Optimus bots working at Tesla. 目前机器人的自主化程度非常高，我们可以与它交谈，并命令他完成任务。或者他们现在可以观看视频，然后根据视频内容完成相应任务。所以这真的会是一件很了不起的事情。我对这样的预测充满信心：人形机器人与人类的比例将大于 1 比 1。因此世界上最终将有100、甚至200亿台机器人。 It’ll like the degree of autonomy will be radically， but you just literally be able to talk to it and say， please do this task or I’m gonna show you something. Now do that. The thing that I’m showing you get to where it can watch a video of something like a person. Andand then learn just by looking at that videoand do that task. So really it’s gonna be quite something. I’m confident of the prediction that there will be more like the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will be greater than1 to 1. 但我认为，作为一个机器人初创公司，做Optimus实际上是非常具有挑战性的，因为我们发现，要让Optimus发挥作用，我们必须从头开始做机器人的每个部分，包括减速器、传感器、通信系统、电机等，都必须从头开始进行设计。我们发现基本上什么都没有，也没有相应供应链。尽管世界上有很多制造电机的厂商，但人形机器人所需的电机、传感器和减速器等却没有相应供应链。 And tells us gonna be my father later in that， you’re seeing a lot of robot startups. but I think it’s actually very challenging to do optimists as a robot startup because what we found to make optimists work， we’ve had toevery design from first principles， from scratch， every part of the robot， so the motor of the gearbox， the sensors， the power electronics， the communication system， everything h ad to be done from scratch. We found that there’s basically nothing， there’s no supply chain. Even though there are many electric motors made in the world， there’s no supply chain for the types of motors and sensors and gearboxes that are needed for a humanoid robot. 我们下一代机器人的手部将拥有22个自由度，它将能够弹钢琴。 I what you’re saying here is our car generation， a hand and arm， but an excellent which has 11 degrees of freedom. Our next generationhas 22 of freedom. It will be able to play the piano. It’s really like now likes that we need to make sure you don’t have the terminator scenario. That’s very important. So the same safety of the human robot would be very important. Q&A Q1：Optimus将使用怎样的大语言模型？Optimus会有特定的性格吗？用户可以完全控制Optimus吗？ What kind of will Tesla use any large language models on Top of the current Tesla robots capabilities？ And also if so， will optimistshave any kind of personality？ Would that besomething that the end user might be able tohave control over？ A：你将能够定制个性。机器人也会了解你