环球市场：泡沫破裂前夕，还是新世界序曲？

环球市场 泡沫破裂前夕，还是新世界序曲？ 姜越(852) 3911 8243verajiang@ccbintl.com 轰轰烈烈的“美股七巨头”似乎遇到了麻烦，它们的总市值上周下跌了9,500亿美元，创下了该组合有史以来最大的单周市值跌幅。这七家公司主要是科技巨头，约占标准普尔500指数所有成分股总市值的29%。在股市回调之后，未来几周又将迎来科技巨头的财报，现在似乎是审视这种市场高度集中和价格快速增长的合适时机，首要的问题是，我们看到的是在未来几周即将破灭的科技泡沫，还是以高度集中为特征的新模式的开始，即约市值的30%以上集中在七只股票或左右。 即使是“美股七巨头”最狂热的支持者也不得不承认，今天的科技巨头有时会让人联想到过去的股市泡沫。标准普尔500指数市场高度集中于排名前10的公司，而且行业数据显示，相对于其他行业，科技行业的市值在不断增长。科技巨头市值和对指数涨幅贡献的集中程度似乎比“互联网泡沫（dotcombubble）”时期更为严重。 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 这次会有所不同吗？还是这一切都将成为泡影？至少目前我们有理由相信，“美股七巨头”可以避免与“漂亮50（Nifty-fifty）”和“互联网泡沫”类似的命运。 首先，美国的紧缩周期已经结束。预计年内会开启降息。这与之前的泡沫破灭形成了鲜明对比。“漂亮50”和“互联网泡沫”的破灭受到了从宽松转向紧缩的影响。美联储提高了利率，增加了股市下行的压力。 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 其次，尽管AIGC主题催生了新的科技创业公司，但“互联网泡沫”时期的IPO狂潮并未重演，市场更加理性。 最后，目前市场上流行的“美股七巨头”股票都是财务稳健、现金流充裕的成熟公司。与“互联网泡沫”时期不同的是，当时市场上充斥着仍在燃烧风险资本和IPO募集到现金的初创公司，而“美股七巨头”都是拥有高效工具和专有技术的科技巨头，并有庞大的资金渠道支持其研发工作。 在本报告中，我们列出了几种描述美国市场可能发展的情景。我们从最好的情况到最坏的情况，对当前的高度集中给出了三种不同的未来发展，即“分化与洗牌”、“扩张与退潮”和“泡沫破裂”。 我们认为，“分化与洗牌”是最有可能出现的一种情况，即我们将看到少数大型股票继续高度集中，这些股票构成了AIGC内部变革的先锋，但这一领先联盟的构成可能会发生洗牌。 我们有三个理由相信科技巨头的“分化和洗牌”会发生。首先，我们以前见过类似的市场转变，从FAANG（Facebook、亚马逊、苹果、Netflix和谷歌）到GAMMA（谷歌、亚马逊、微软、Meta和苹果），再到“美股七巨头”，媒体已经在酝酿Fab Four（英伟达、亚马逊、Meta和微软）的概念。 其次，创新成本高昂，而且随着时间的推移成本急剧上升，形成了进入壁垒，使新的参与者不太可能进入游戏。 最后，有几种催化剂促成了这一局面，包括越来越多的人相信“更高利率持续更久”的货币政策，以及ChatGPT和SORA等技术突破成为头条新闻。 尽管“这次不一样”这句话可能很危险，代价也很高，但到目前为止，我们认为这次可能会不一样，尽管市场集中在“美股七巨头”中，我们认为，科技巨头稳健的财务状况和充裕的现金流，以及美国可能转向宽松的货币政策，可能会引领市场走上一条不同的道路，避免泡沫破裂。 正如我们在2024年展望中所述，我们预计2024年美国股市将形成U型走势，随着美联储提前降息的预期减弱，市场调整可能从4月份开始，并持续到5月份。其他近期的下行催化剂包括地缘政治冲突的潜在升级、美国大选季的不确定性以及财报季的下行意外，因此我们仍然认为投资者应在美国股市获利了结，等待4月和5月的逢低买入。 CCBI Securities | Research Global Markets Bubble or Brave New World？ Vera Jiang(852) 3911 8243verajiang@ccbintl.com Theroaring“Magnificent Seven”appear to be in trouble,with their collective marketcapitalisation falling by US$950b last week, the largest weekly market value loss ever recordedfor the group. The seven companies, mainly technology giants, account foraround 29% of thetotal market capitalisation of all constituents of the S&P 500. In the aftermath of the meltdown,and with big tech earnings due in the coming weeks, it seems an appropriate time to review theimplications for the market of such a high market concentration and rapid price growth. Theoverriding question is whether we are seeing a tech bubble on the verge of bursting in the nextfewweeks or the beginning of a new paradigm characterized by a high degree ofconcentration, upwards of 30% of market capitalisation in seven stocks or thereabouts. Even the most ardent supporters of the Magnificent Seven would have to concede that, as agroup, today's technology giants at times resemble some of the stock market bubbles of thepast. The S&P 500 is highly concentrated in the top-10 companies. Sector data shows that themarket capitalisation of the technology sector is growing relative to other sectors. The market'sconcentration in technology giants appears to be even more acute than it was during thedotcom bubble. Cliff Zhao(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com Will this time be different or is the market in for yet another bubble burst? There are reasons tobelieve the Magnificent Seven can avoid a fate similar to the Nifty Fifty of the 1970s or thedotcom companies in the early 2000s. First of all, the US is at the end of its tightening cycle. Interest rates are expected to be cut thisyear. These conditions are a stark contrast to previous bubble bursts. The burstings of the NiftyFifty bubble and the dotcom bubble were affected by a shift fromeasing to tightening. The Fedraised interest rates, which added downward pressure on equity markets. Wilson Zou(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com Second, although the AIGC theme has created new tech start-ups, the IPO frenzy of the dotcombubble has not been repeated and the market is now more rational. Finally, the Magnificent Seven stocks that are currently popular in the market are establishedfirms with solid financials and ample cashflow. We are not dealing with start-ups still burningthrough venture capital and IPO cash as was the case duringthe dotcom bubble. In this report, we list several scenarios describing possible developments in the US market. Weoffer three different possible future developments that could come out of the current highconcentration in the market, from a best-case scenario to a worst-case scenario. We havelabeled these the three scenarios: Diverge and Shuffle, Expand and Fade, and Bubble Burst. Divergeand Shuffle is the most likely, in our view.It envisions a continuation of a highconcentration of a handful of large stocks that constitute a vanguard of change within AIGC,though the constituents of this leading league may shuffle. There are three reasons we believe the Diverge and Shuffle scenario is the most likely: First, we'veseen similar market shifts in thepast, from FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, andGoogle) to GAMMA (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple) and then to the MagnificentSe