一个新镜头 ： Arup 的 7see 框架如何为低碳未来创造有用的场景

Dr. Simon H. RobertsAssociate DirectorArup University About the author Dr. Simon H. Roberts is an associate director and energy specialistin Arup University. He is a physicist with an industrial backgroundin manufacturing and a long-term involvement in sustainability andenergy-related matters. Collaborators for development of the 7see model: Colin Axon (Brunel University London), Barney Foran (Charles SturtUniversity, Australia), Nigel Goddard (University of Edinburgh),and Benjamin Warr (INSEAD, France). Collaborators for critiquing the 7see scenarios here: Chris Thoung (economist), Colin Axon (Brunel University, London),Simon Ratcliffe (Department for International Development, UKGovernment – in his personal capacity), Tony Greenham (the RSA, RoyalSociety for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce),and from Arup include Stephen Cook, Elisa Magnini, James Thongerand Kim West. Introduction The 195 nations that signed the historic COP21 agreement inParis in December 2015 now have to face up to the commitmentsthey’ve made under their INDCs (Intended Nationally DeterminedContributions). These are the voluntary reductions in carbondioxide emissions that each country has committed to, intended tostop the Earth from permanently warming by over 2°C abovepre-industrial levels. As the conversation moves from ‘the what’ to ‘the how’, Arup issharing a modelling tool called 7see, which helps industrialisedeconomies visualise transitional scenarios that could deliverthat low-carbon future, without turning their backs on economicgrowth, stable employment or prosperity. In a collaboration of academics and other colleagues, we havedeveloped the 7see framework to shed new light on the complexrelationship between sectors of economic activity, growth andcarbon emissions. In a way we think of it as rendering visible theengineering of our economy. As this article will show, this model is about visualising potentialeconomic scenarios. In the realm of policy-making the rightmodels will help policy-makers evaluate and commit to moreambitious yet pragmatic solutions. Given the level of structuralchange required in shifting a country’s energy production basis,understanding how, what and when to change will be key tomaking progress. The burning issue Behaviour of the model One facet of 7see is as a methodology for visualisingand analysing complex data about a country, focusingon ‘dwellings’ (residences) and the economic activityof six main areas: agriculture, extraction, utilities,manufacturing, construction and the service industry.We focus here on the UK as an example of its application. The COP21 agreement defines nations’ commitmentsto reducing demand for energy created by burningfossil fuels. For instance, we want continued growinguse of electricity, but somehow have to generate it withdecreasing emissions of carbon dioxide. The underlying requirement is therefore to shift theproduction of energy en-masse to different, non-carbonsources as well as accelerating energy efficiency anddemand reduction. On current projections the existing mixof energy generation technologies will mean the UK failsto meet the required 80% drop in the emission of carboninto the atmosphere by 2050. Figure 1, below, makes thisall too clear. The business-as-usual line that trends up after2025 represents continued emission of carbon dioxide intothe atmosphere. Using a collation of official UK statistics dating back to1990 on economic output, infrastructure costs (includingfor their replacement), energy use, generation capacity,jobs, population, dwellings and transportation, the 7seemodel can generate valuable insights into the road ahead.It uncovers how the interlocking parts of our economyuse energy, how employment and wealth are generated,and, importantly, how the economy might transition todeliver a low-carbon future. But with 86% of our existing energy derived from burningfossil fuels how could we afford such systemic change?Would there be increased unemployment? Could weliterally afford to keep the lights on during such atransition from one energy infrastructure to another? Contrary to the doom-laden suppositions of someeconomists and policy-makers, 7see suggests that itis feasible to create a robust scenario in which thetransition to a low-carbon economy is possible, withoutgiving up on economic growth (GDP) and high levels ofemployment in the economy. Historical and projections of UK territorial carbondioxide emissions from combustion of fossil fuels. As a planet we currently convertfossil fuels into 21.3bn tonnes ofcarbon dioxide in the atmosphereevery year. Only about 50% of thatCO2is absorbed by natural processes.Finding and deploying new sourcesof low-emission energy that powerour homes and businesses andtransportation is therefore vital. An average 2°C increase in globaltemperature above pre-industriallevels is reckoned to produce extremechanges in weather, sea level risesand other threats to many existingpopu