2024 年全球电动汽车展望 ： 迈向更高的可负担性

Moving towards increased affordability INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policies thatwill enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31member countries,13associationcountries and beyond. IEA membercountries: IEA associationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and assesses recentdevelopments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the supportof members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). Combining analysis of historical data with projections – now extended to 2035 –the report examines key areas of interest such as the deployment of electricvehicles and charging infrastructure, battery demand, investment trends, andrelated policy developments in major and emerging markets. It also considerswhat wider EV adoption means for electricity and oil consumption and greenhousegas emissions. The report includes analysis of lessons learned from leadingmarkets, providing information for policy makers and stakeholders on policyframeworks and market systems that support electric vehicle uptake. This edition also features analysis of electric vehicle affordability, second-handmarkets, lifecycle emissions of electric cars and their batteries, and grid impactsfrom charging medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks. Two online tools are madeavailable alongside the report: the Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EVPolicy Explorer, which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics andprojections, and policy measures worldwide. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits TheGlobal EV Outlook 2024was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP) Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks(STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The project was designed anddirected by Timur Gül, Chief Energy Technology Officer. Araceli Fernandez Pales,Head of the Technology Innovation Unit, provided strategic guidance throughoutthe development of the project. Elizabeth Connelly co-ordinated the analysis andproduction of the report. The principal IEA authors were (in alphabetical order): Oskaras Alšauskas,Elizabeth Connelly, Mathilde Huismans, Ethan Jenness, Javier Jorquera Copier,Jean-Baptiste Le Marois, Teo Lombardo, Shane McDonagh, Vera O’Riordan,Apostolos Petropoulos and Jules Sery. Yoshihisa Tsukamoto and Biqing Yangcontributed to the research on EV supportive policies and OEM electrificationplans.Vedant Sinha contributed to analysis on EV price parity and datamanagement. Anthony Vautrin contributed to the analysis on total and net loadimpacts of electric truck charging. Valuable insights and feedback were provided by senior management and othercolleagues from across IEA, including Laura Cozzi, Keisuke Sadamori, BrianMotherway,Alessandro Blasi,Toril Bosoni,Dennis Hesseling,StéphanieBouckaert, Alexander Bressers,Federico Callioni, Shobhan Dhir, Ciaran Healy,Thomas Spencer and Jacques Warichet. Per-Anders Widell provided essentialsupport throughout the process. Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript. Special thanks go to Prof. Andreas Ulbig and his team at RWTH Aachen University(Andreas Bong and Chris Vertgewall) for their analytical input on electric heavy-duty vehicle integration in electricity grids. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office, particularly to JethroMullen, Poeli Bojorquez, Curtis Brainard, Jon Custer, Hortense de Roffignac,Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Julia Horowitz, Oliver Joy, IsabelleNonain-Semelin, Clara Vallois, Lucile Wall and Wonjik Yang. The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided bythe EVI member governments and the funds received through the Global E-Mobility Programme funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The report benefited from the high-calibre data and support provided by thefollowing colleagues: Nissa Alexander (Department of Economic Development,Transport and Civil Aviation, Saint Lucia); Mozah Mohamed Alnuaimi (Ministry ofEnergy and Infrastructure, United Arab