The Flow Show ： 如果鸽子不适合

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14. 12683509 The Flow Show If the dove don’t fit... Scores on the Doors: crypto 30.7%, oil 15.2%, gold 14.8%, commodities 9.6%, US dollar 4.8%, stocks 3.7%, cash 1.6%, HY bonds -0.3%, stocks (equal-weighted) -1.8%, IG bonds -3.0%, govt bonds -5.5% YTD. Zeitgeist: Canada jacking up capital gains tax rates from 50% to 67%...highly indebted Western governments have promises to keep, wars to fund...means higher inflation, higher yields & higher taxation...until likely central bank bailout of public sector. The Biggest Picture: risk assets correcting in Q2 as “good news = good” in Q1 flips to “good news = bad”; April BofA Global FMS (see note) says investors most bullish since Jan’22 just as rate cut catalyst no longer a “lock”; bulls say nothing more healthy than “back’n’fill” correction; bears say watch US growth stocks (struggling to break to new highs – Chart 2 ) & HY bonds (Chart 3 ) to signal more sinister transition to “bad news = bad.” The Price is Right: based on price (Table 1), flows & positioning the contrarian “pain trades” to position for surprise bout of “bad news = bad”...long bonds-short stocks, long cash-short commodities, long China-short Japan, long staples-short tech & industrials. Tale of the Tape: weird to see simultaneous strength in tech (annualizing 21% YTD), commodities (47%) & US dollar (16%); happened in only 5 of past 60 years...1969, 1983, 1999, 2016, 2021 (see ranked asset price returns by decade – Charts 4-10)...years of stimulus-induced booms (Reagan “twin deficits” in ‘83, COVID in ‘21), bubbles (‘99) & inflection (’69...start of stagflation, ’16...onset of de-globalization). Chart 2: The Belly of the Beast S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2... Dec'21Mar'2420304050607080'17'18'19'20'21'22'23'24S&P 500 Growth (SPYG)18 April 2024 Investment Strategy Global Michael Hartnett Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 1508 michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou >> Investment Strategist BofASE (France) +33 1 8770 0087 elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya Shelekhin Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 3753 anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee Jung Investment Strategist BofAS +1 646 855 0389 myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Drops to 5.0 from 5.2 Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicator identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as a benchmark. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Extreme BullishExtreme BearishSellBuy46100825.0Accessible version Timestamp: 18 April 2024 10:36PM EDT 2 The Flow Show | 18 April 2024 Weekly Flows: $5.7bn to bonds, $26mn to crypto, $0.9bn from gold, $9.1bn from stocks, $159.8bn from cash. Flows to Know: • Cash: massive tax-related outflow of $160.0bn, • IG bonds: 25th weekly inflow of $3.8bn, albeit smallest since Dec’23, • HY bonds: largest weekly outflow of $2.3bn since Oct’23, • US stocks: largest 2-week outflow ($21.1bn) since Dec’22. BofA Private Clients: $3.5tn AUM of which 61.2% stocks, 20.4% bonds, 11.7% cash; past 4 weeks GWIM buying EM debt, Japan & financial ETFs, selling healthcare, utilities & energy ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops to 5.0 from 5.2 as outflows from stocks and HY bonds outweigh drop in BofA FMS cash levels. Chart 3: Ominous HY High yield corporate bond ETF (HYG) vs 200-day moving average Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Table 1: Leaders & Laggards of ‘24 Cross-asset price action YTD, relative to 50/100/200dma, and vs ‘21 peaks Index YTD % vs 50d