电子 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 5 电子 2024年04月17日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 《荷兰首相将访华，看好半导体设备国产化进程—行业点评报告》-2024.3.25 《华为新机强势回归，消费电子PCB有 望 复 苏—行 业 深 度 报 告 》-2024.3.19 《Claude 3家族模型发布，多项指标处于领先地位—行业点评报告》-2024.3.6 台股3月营收同比表现较优，景气复苏逐步确认 ——行业点评报告 罗通（分析师） 王宇泽（联系人） luotong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522070002 wangyuze@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123120028  半导体（上游）：代工、封测已陆续复苏，2024H2景气度预期向好 代工方面，台积电/稳懋3月营收同比分别+34.3%/42.9%，据天天IC，台积电预期Q2营收有望回升到新台币6000亿元以上水平，季增5-7%，其中AI相关产品是主要成长动能，3、5nm接单强劲；封测方面，日月光近两月营收同比基本持平，力成则实现连续5月营收同比增长，京元电子连续3个月营收同比增长，景气度持续向好。据芯榜2月4日报道，日月光预期2024H1将完成库存调整，H2有望加速增长，其中先进封装受益于人工智能推动，收入有望翻倍；上游硅片方面，厂商营收表现则仍有部分压力，2024年以来各公司营收表现同比持续下滑。展望未来，据全球半导体观察2月28日报道，环球晶圆预计市场有望逐步复苏，2024H2表现将比上半年更加健康。  半导体（中下游）：芯片设计厂复苏趋势明显，其中存储/SoC同比增长较快 从中下游来看，由于更接近终端，各类芯片设计厂商复苏节点普遍早于上游代工、封测厂，从2023H2开始，存储/SoC/模拟等厂商营收陆续回暖，同比持续增长。其中，受益于产品价格持续回升，存储环节景气度较好，2024年以来多家公司营收同比增长超50%，南亚科（DRAM）/群联（NAND）/威刚（模组）2024年以来单月营收平均同比涨幅分别达48.2%/63.9%/51.4%，复苏迹象明显；SoC板块景气度亦较为可观，联发科/瑞昱/信骅年初以来单月营收平均同比涨幅分别达47.8%/33.2%/51.4%。  消费电子：2023H2以来光学/面板持续复苏，AI赋能终端有望带动需求 从同比走势来看，2023H2以来消费电子各环节营收正稳步复苏，其中光学厂商景气度较高，大立光/玉晶光多个月度营收同比增幅超30%。据集微网3月10日报道，随着三星、华为等品牌陆续推出具备AI应用的新款机型，2024年已成为AI手机元年，市场有望加速复苏；面板和PC链方面，友达（面板）/华硕（PC链）年初以来月同比平均涨幅分别达16.6%/12.2%，复苏态势稳健。  元器件及功率：PCB/CCL/被动3月营收同比增长，功率景气度仍有压力 从同比走势来看，PCB/CCL/被动元器件厂商3月表现良好，多家厂商营收同比增速超15%；而功率板块景气度仍承压，多家厂商营收连续两月同比下滑。据集微网3月22日消息，中国台湾电路板协会（TPCA）表示随着电子产品库存回补与手机、电脑等市场需求回升，叠加电车、AI服务器需求增长，电子与PCB产业将在2024年迎来下一个增长周期。预计全年中国台湾PCB产业链产值将增长7.4%，复苏态势明显。  风险提示：需求复苏不及预期，行业竞争加剧，各公司新品研发不及预期。 -48%-36%-24%-12%0%12%2023-042023-082023-12电子沪深300相关研究报告 开源证券 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 行业研究 行业点评报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 2 / 5 附图1：中国台股（电子板块）月度营收同比走势：2023H2以来，各环节厂商营收表现陆续回暖 数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 年份20222022202220222022202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202420242024公司/月份89101112123456789101112123环球晶圆21.8%12.6%26.8%10.1%14.2%13.7%11.7%16.9%7.2%-1.4%1.1%-4.1%-12.9%6.0%-19.2%-13.3%6.4%-25.9%-15.9%-15.6%台胜科30.8%37.4%44.6%41.2%29.6%-9.2%6.9%4.3%-14.8%-16.5%0.7%-14.7%-13.9%-12.5%-28.0%-10.0%1.5%-9.4%-24.4%-23.3%合晶28.9%28.3%16.3%2.6%-1.4%-11.3%-9.8%-13.5%-11.9%-13.9%-28.2%-23.3%-23.8%-22.5%-34.7%-30.0%-30.2%-32.0%-27.5%-22.2%台积电58.7%36.4%56.3%50.2%23.9%16.2%11.1%-15.4%-14.3%-4.9%-11.1%-4.9%-13.5%-13.4%15.7%-7.5%-8.4%7.9%11.3%34.3%联电34.9%34.5%27.1%14.7%3.3%-4.3%-18.6%-20.1%-19.0%-23.1%-23.2%-23.2%-25.2%-24.5%-21.2%-16.7%-18.9%-2.9%3.1%2.7%世界23.4%-11.5%-5.6%-26.7%-38.8%-23.4%-41.5%-50.7%-20.4%-41.0%-42.8%-22.9%-29.3%-6.8%-8.8%-8.7%24.6%-8.6%24.1%44.8%力积电10.0%-0.4%-7.2%-32.4%-40.3%-42.9%-44.3%-46.9%-47.2%-49.8%-51.7%-49.1%-46.0%-41.8%-32.8%-14.4%-16.4%-9.2%-3.2%-3.9%稳懋-38.5%-48.1%-48.9%-49.0%-53.7%-54.7%-52.1%-39.5%-42.0%-24.7%-7.9%2.1%2.3%16.6%31.8%31.1%52.0%73.5%53.4%42.9%宏捷科技-53.8%-57.6%-72.7%-70.7%-63.3%-51.9%-42.3%-35.2%-36.5%0.1%3.7%12.6%34.1%53.8%164.7%185.2%207.4%253.8%305.3%273.6%日月光投控26.5%24.0%21.7%-0.7%-10.9%-7.1%-8.8%-12.0%-11.0%-14.1%-19.4%-16.9%-18.1%-19.7%-12.5%-9.3%-6.1%5.0%-0.6%-0.3%京元电子-5.0%-2.1%-1.0%-9.9%-10.4%-17.0%-4.2%-17.8%-22.8%-16.9%-13.4%-10.7%-0.4%-2.5%-5.3%-1.2%-5.3%9.5%0.5%7.2%力成-6.0%-8.3%-12.7%-20.1%-21.0%-31.0%-19.5%-22.3%-23.5%-27.7%-26.6%-19.5%-11.5%-10.0%-8.0%7.7%12.1%22.2%12.6%14.8%联发科4.4%18.1%-10.8%-19.8%-16.3%-48.6%-24.3%-27.4%-46.1%-39.4%-25.1%-22.3%-5.5%-36.2%28.2%19.2%12.9%98.8%27.0%17.5%瑞昱8.0%-1.9%-10.2%-20.6%-30.5%-46.2%-31.9%-24.0%-20.6%-13.7%-6.6%-8.4%-14.8%-7.6%-2.8%7.0%8.4%59.5%26.3%13.9%信骅32.6%55.6%45.1%37.6%5.4%-42.7%-33.2%-47.8%-49.8%-51.5%-55.2%-45.8%-39.5%-32.5%-37.3%-18.5%-18.5%64.4%30.9%59.0%天钰-36.2%-43.3%-44.7%-32.0%-24.8%-43.8%-22.3%-33.8%-27.1%-18.5%-10.9%-8.0%1.3%11.4%0.4%-11.5%-14.9%7.1%-27.9%4.8%联咏-49.5%-52.3%-45.4%-35.5%-34.6%-41.4%-34.8%-26.4%-19.1%-6.9%24.0%40.9%48.5%54.9%38.6%15.0%11.7%20.7%-6.7%-6.6%硅力-KY4.3%-9.0%-17.1%-18.2%-34.8%-46.2%-42.1%-41.1%-51.2%-48.0%-42.0%-45.4%-25.9%-20.0%-12.1%-7.0%-0.2%32.9%-12.6%15.8%谱瑞-KY-13.8%-25.5%-33.1%-37.0%-51.8%-40.8%-56.5%-48.2%-51.8%-51.9%-46.2%-39.1%-22.5%10.9%-2.0%16.1%51.1%21.2%21.6%33.1%南亚科-58.4%-58.2%-61.4%-61.8%-65.4%-66.8%-68.5%-68.2%-65.8%-62.7%-53.1%-44.6%-24.7%-15.0%-4.1%3.7%31.7%36.0%50.6%58.0%群联电子-22.5%-16.2%-30.3%-29.7%-19.9%-46.9%-38.3%-38.5%-43.0%-37.2%-34.9%-36.5%-9.8%4.1%22.7%32.5%29.5%76.7%42.5%72.6%华邦电-16.0%-19.3%-29.5%-23.8%-24.7%-43.8%-33.2%-25.3%-36.3%-30.4%-21.5%-14.6%-13.2%-8.0%1.2%-2.3%0.5%31.1%8.0%9.1%旺宏-25.6%-27.1%-34.7%-41.6%-36.9%-40.5%-42.9%-33.7%-22.5%-35.7%-45.3%-39.5%-30.2%-39.6%-41.9%-34.6%-29.0%-13.5%-16.2%-25.2%威刚-6.6%0.4%-18.2%-26.7%-27.9%-34.4%-21.7%-22.0%-26.8%-12.5%-23.9%-14.6%-1.1%4.0%39.6%56.2%33.5%63.8%34.0%56.6%十铨-6.3%-3.5%-20.5%-20.8%6.3%-24.5%20.0%-13.0%490.0%121.0%207.9%83.6%152.3%113.1%220.8%250.1%200.8%102.4%55.5%116.2%新唐科技7.2%-1.1%-11.0%-1.2%-11.6%-31.9%-14.9%-3.9%-29.7%-20.3%-10.2%-12.1%-15.4%-13.7%-8.5%-18.0%-7.2%13.5%-20.1%-5.7%盛群-34.4%-51.1%-39.9%-49.3%-36.2%-61.2%-63.0%-56.0%-62.4%-56.1%-51.6%-55.6%-54.5%-48.2%-56.3%-53.0%-55.5%-38.8%-60.2%-25.0%设备致茂电子63.0%58.5%87.8%51.6%-22.8%-7.7%28.7%-11.2%-7.0%-8.4%-14.9%-36.1%-18.9%-27.7%-34.2%-21.2%19.4%4.9%-13.9%9.5%圣晖75.2%45.3%2