2023 年中国媒体价格趋势预测

2023 China Media Inflation Trends Report12th edition, prepared by R3February2023RCww-rthrea.con Content1Background & Methodology2Media Inflation Factors3Media Inflation Forecasts Background & Methodology 2022Inflation&2023ForecastsThe 12th annual edition of the R3 China Media Inflation Trends Report covers2022 actual inflation and 2023 inflation forecasts.This report focuses on the overall media inflation forecast of digital and ooH inChina, which account for the highest ratio of media investment in the industry.R3 does not rely on any one single data source; making it one of the mostobjective and independent inflation forecasts available.In compiling this report, R3 referred to the public rate cards of 7o0+ mediaand buying policies of 20+ agency holding groups and local media agencies.DSmarttwRate cards15300+HOO20070 MediaInflationFactors FactorsThatImpactMediaInflationR3 evaluates media inflation through theperspective of three key factorsMacro Economic EnvironmentTrends in Ad SpendDigital Media LandscapeChina's economy growth rate slowedReduction in advertising spend isThe combined market share of thebut is expected to recoverdriven by OOH4 Digital Giants declined slightly+ GDP grew just 3% in 2022 as+ 2022 rate card spending is expected• The four digital giants (Alibaba, Douyin.lockdowns weighed on activity andto decrease by 3.8% . A notable dropTencent, Baiduj decreased theirconfidence, significantly declining fromcompared to 12.5%2 yOy growth incombined markot share from 72% in8.1%growth in2021.2021.2021Q1-Q3to 65% in2022Q1-Q3.+ China's growth is expected to+ Digital remains resilent with a 4%a- The next 12 key platlorms (a group ofaccelerateto 4.4%in 2023 as theprojected growth rate in 2022. whilelisted companies) combined share iseconomy is expected to be relleved00H media spend decreased 22.5%31% of total digital ad revenuo.from pandemic-related restrictions.Yoyduring.2o22January-November.R3 DRIVIN3 TRANSFCFNATION FOR MARKETERB & THER ASENCES6 China's MacroeconomicEnvironmentIn 2o22,due to pandemic restrictions,consumer confidence was weak,negatively affecting GDP growthChina's GDP annual growth rate comparisonAffected by recurring pandemic restrictions, China's GDP8.1%growth rate slowed down again in 20226.1%China's Ccl (consumer confidence index) showed negative4.4%:growth from January to October 2022, and dropped by more2.2%3.0%than 25% from April to October.2019 vs. 20 182020 vs. 20192021 ts. 20202022 is. 20212023evs. 2022Year-on-yeargrowth rate of China Consumer Confidence Index (ccl)681%4.38%5.18%9.08-285%0.00%STSO0.95%0.588123%-3.63%1.88%1.06.++2021.12021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021,72021.82021.92021.102021.112021.122022,12022.42022.52022.62022.72022.82022.92022,10Bot9 Scuros: 2019-2022 6ct/ai GDP growth rate: Msticngl Buate,:China1lirter CCtAatauafSmnsnesR3 DRIVIN3 TRANSFCFNATION FOR MARKETERB & THER AGENCES1 ASignificantlyCutOnO0HSpendingIn2022MediaAggregateRatecardGrowthRateofDigitalGrowth Rate ofspending was contractedAdvertising RevenueOOH Investment2022 vs. 2021 Estimation12022 Estimation22022 January - November1-3.8%4.0%-22.5%SourBe: CIRShort Videc Lsers?Suurue: CTR2021vS.2020Short Video+10.7 %962 millicnTraditional OOH-28.6%12.5%7.0%8.3% of YoY increas8MediaeCommerce91.5% of total netizenOffice LCD3.5%2020vs.2019Social4.0%Online Payment User?Lift Poster5.0%-9.9%Search0.3%904 millicn86 of total notizenNatonal onl ne retail sales:Cinerma53.8%2019.vs.2018News &vertical&web Browser11.2%4%ofyoyincrease-3.8%Online Video6.6%por1 o 2022 nlemctAmuatg stt: S chNc 50Pncpov1R3DRIVIN3 TRAN3FCRNATION FOR MARKETERB & THER AGENCE38 DouyinGroupManagedtoKeep6%GrowthRatewhile Rest3Digital Giants ExperiencedADeclinedAd RevenueAdvertisingRevenueof4Digital GiantsDigitalMediaPublishersMarketShare%AlibabaGroup100%6元1%1%90.27%30831%抖音集团301+6%60%50%Tencent腾讯-14%40%+罚车72%30%68%20%Bai爸百宝QIY-9%10%爱奇艺0%2021 Q1-Q32022 Q1-035001.0001.5002,0002,5004 Digital Glants12Ke:PlatformsOthers2022Q1-Q32021Q1-Q3RMB: 100mil12 Key Platforms: Kuaishou, JD, Pinduodua, Xiaomi, Meituan, Weibo, Sohu, 360, Autdhome, Bilibili, Mango, REDRonark, odo putfehters od rererueis fn sanpary fitanaatsateneits, Couyin Ccup PED are froni R3 cstimotio, 2 Aftata Goup Tne anountinetuaes custarermenogsteit zeriicete; 3. 2921 Q2-qs laalmarkct agpal reychucit RMS 735 on n 2322 G1-qs 14legtalrcroiue a E 790bion.9 Media InflationForecasts 2023 Media Inflation HighlightsThreekey insightsOpening ads on Apps remain the highest demand ad inventories. The rate card inflationin 2022 varied from 20% - 130% across Red, weibo and Douyin. This trend is expected tocontinue in 2023.2Digital investment is highly skewed to display ads. Video platform key players Tencentand iQiyi dramaticaly increased their rate card price of display ads in Q1 of 2023 toboost their ad revenue.3Digital publishers leverage two ways to upsell its ad inventories. In terms of cost model,digital publishers will look at charging premiums for high traffic timeslots and expandingto a variet