新冠肺炎养老金提取和普遍保障养老金对智利未来退休人员收入的影响（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1176 The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile by Carlos Madeira Monetary and Economic Department March 2024 JEL classification: D14, H55, O54 Keywords: Pension wealth, Covid pandemic, Fiscal costs BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) The e§ect of Covid pension withdrawals and the UniversalGuaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in ChileCarlos MadeiraDecember 2023AbstractChile implemented large pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic. Afterwards, Chileincreased non-contributory beneÖts in a quasi-universal scheme. Simulating future pensions, Ishow that the average loss in contributory pension income is 27.9%, with losses of 23.9% and31.4% for men and women, respectively. After accounting for public transfers, the averageloss in total pension income is just 6.2%, with losses of 7.5% and 5.2% for men and women,respectively. Current retirees lost just 1.1% of their pension income after accounting for thegovernment transfers. The state may end up covering 92% of the total value of the pensionwithdrawals through increased transfers.JEL ClassiÖcation: D14; H55; O54.Keywords: Pension wealth; Covid pandemic; Fiscal costs.Declarations of interest: none.Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and Central Bank of Chile, carlos.madeira@bis.org. The views andconclusions presented in this paper are exclusively those of the author and do not necessarily reáect the position ofthe BIS or the Central Bank of Chile. All errors are my own.1 1 IntroductionDuring the Covid pandemic, at least 31 countries allowed some pension withdrawals as a measureto support distressed households (OECD 2021, Madeira 2022a, Cespedes et al 2023). Chile wasamong the few countries for which the pension withdrawals during the pandemic could be madewithout any conditions or urgency requirements. However, despite other government transfers topoor households and job retention programs (Madeira 2022b), the Chilean pension withdrawalsin terms of the pre-pandemic GDP were twice as large as those of any other country (OECD2021). The Chilean withdrawals represented a total rundown in pension assets of around 20% ofGDP and reduced the contributory pensions of almost 11 million workers (Evans and Pienknagura2021, Fuentes et al. 2021, Fuentes et al. 2023). Therefore, the economic implications of theChilean withdrawals are signiÖcant for future retirees. The current low level of contributorypension savings may increase the demands for pension reform (Evans and Pienknagura 2021,Parada-Contzen 2022, Madeira 2022a), while reducing domestic savings and investment (Cerdaet al. 2020, Parada-Contzen 2020, Madeira 2022a).Using the most recent Chilean Household Expenditure Survey (Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares,EPF) of 2017 with a sample of 15,239 households, I estimate the impact of the pension withdrawalsin Chile on the future pension income of retirees and the e§ects of the new pension reformlegislated in 2022. Projection of workersílabor path until retirement age with accumulated pensioncontributions, for the two counterfactuals with the pension withdrawals and without these, allowme to compare the loss in future pension income relative to the forecasted no-withdrawals pension.I show that the e§ect of the withdrawals on the contributory component of the pension incomeis large and will persist over several years. However, there was a large expansion of the publicnon-contributory pensions in Chile with new legislation in 2022, entitled the "Universal GuaranteedPension" law (law 21419 of the Chilean Congress). After this 2022 law, the e§ect of the withdrawalsis substantially reduced once the total pension income (that is, contributory and non-contributorypensions) is accounted for. Finally, I analyze the Öscal costs of higher government transfers to boththe current and future retirees (i.e., those currently in the labor force population) as a result of thepension withdrawals.This study is the Örst to show the implications for the pension income of the current and future2 cohorts of retirees in Chile of the pension policy choices taken over the last 3 years. Note that thesewere policy decisions with a truly large size at the international level. During 2020 and 2021, Chileallowed