哈萨克斯坦：加强公共财政促进包容性和韧性增长：公共财政审查

KAZAKHSTANPUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW June 2023. © 2023 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank orthe governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included inthis work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this workdo not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory orthe endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages the disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as longas full attribution to this work is given. Attribution— Please cite the work as follows:“World Bank. 2023.Kazakhstan: strengthening public finance for inclusive and resilient growth.Public finance review. © World Bank.” Painting credit:Tolepbay, Yerbolat. Cover page: Pathway. 2020. Back cover: Road to the Temple. 2020. Courtesy of the Pygmalion Gallery, Astana. https://www.tolepbay.com/ All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. KAZAKHSTAN:STRENGTHENING PUBLICFINANCE FOR INCLUSIVEAND RESILIENT GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW Abbreviations ALMPsActive labor market programsASPRAgency for Strategic Planning and ReformASPRAgency for Strategic Planning and ReformBEPSBase Erosion and Profit ShiftingBoDBoard of DirectorsBNSBureau of National StatisticsCEQCommitment to EquityCIPACommittee for Internal Public AuditCPIConsumer Price IndexCFCsControlled foreign corporationsCITCorporate income taxDBKDevelopment Bank of KazakhstanDSGEDynamic stochastic general equilibriumEPUEconomic Planning UnitETSEmission Trading SystemECAEurope and Central AsiaEPTExcess profit taxEBFsExtrabudgetary fundsFSCFinancial Stability CommitteeGFSMGovernment Fiscal Statistics ManualGHGGreenhouse gasGNIGross national incomeHIESHousehold Income and Economy SurveyIFIsIndependent fiscal institutionsICILSInternational Computer and Information Literacy StudyIMFInternational Monetary FundIPSASInternational Public Sector Accounting StandardsISSAInternational Social Security AssociationIDRIssuer Default RatingsJERPJoint Economic Research ProgramJSCJoint Stock CompanyKSFKazakhstan Sustainability FundKTGKazTransGasSAILaw on External AuditMTBFMedium-term budget frameworkMTDSMedium-term debt management strategyMTEFMedium-term expenditure frameworkMETMineral extraction taxMENRMinistry of Ecology and Natural ResourcesMoESMinistry of Education and ScienceMoEMinistry of Enlightenment/EducationMoFMinistry of FinanceMLSPMinistry of Labor and Social Protection of Population MoSHEMinistry of Science and Higher EducationMNEMinistry of the National EconomyDPDDebt Policy Department of the Ministry of National EconomySBDState Borrowing Department of the Ministry of FinanceM&EMonitoring and evaluationNBKNational Bank of KazakhstanNEDBNational Education DatabaseNEPNational Education ProjectNFRKNational Fund of the Republic of KazakhstanNDCsNationally Determined ContributionsNISNazarbayev Intellectual SchoolsNGOsNon-governmental organizationsNPLsNon-performing loansOBSOpen Budget SurveyOECDOrganization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOBBOutcome-Based BudgetingPCFPer-capita financingPM&EPerformance, monitoring, and evaluationPBBPerformance-based budgetingPITPersonal income taxPLFProblem Loan FundPISAProgramme for International Student AssessmentPEFAPublic Expenditure and Financial AccountabilityPERPublic Expenditure ReviewPFRPublic Finance ReviewPFMPublic financial managementPPPPurchasing power parityQFAsQuasi-fiscal activitiesQFEsQuasi-fiscal entitiesRBCRepublican Budget CommissionSKSamruk-KazynaSMEsSmall and medium enterprisesSWFSovereign Wealth FundSEZsSpecial Economic ZonesSHIFState Health Insurance FundSRCState Revenue CommitteeSSIFState Social Insurance FundSOEsState-owned enterprisesSNGsSubnational governmentsSCDSystematic Country DiagnosticTDTsTargeted development transfersTEATax expenditure analysisTVETTechnical vocational education and trainingUAPFUnified Accumulative Pension FundUNDPUnited Nations Development ProgrammeVATValue-added taxMFModWorld Bank’s macro-fiscal modelWHOWorld Health OrganizationYoYYear-on-year Contents AcknowledgmentsIntroduction 1.Strengthening the Fiscal Framework for Inclusive and Resilient Growth 1.1.Fiscal Response amid Growing Macro Challenges131.2Assessment of the Fiscal Posture161.2.1Size of fiscal operations161.2.2Rigidity in government spending: modest but rising191.2.3The us