钢铁行业周报：供需双弱格局延续，钢价反弹幅度有限

主要观点： 报告日期：2024-03-24 ⚫钢材市场：需求逐步复苏，市场稳定运行 成本端：原料端偏弱运行，目前铁矿石仍然是供过于求的格局，原料端对于价格的支撑有限。 供应端：即将进入旺季，库存逐步出清，但较上年同期相比，库存仍在高位。 高频数据： 1）钢材价格：Myspic综合钢价指数+1.01%，其中长材、扁平板分别+0.97%、+1.07%。螺纹钢价格为3610元/吨，环比+2.85%；热轧板卷价格3930元/吨，环比+2.34%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为844元/吨，环比+8%；焦炭价格为2185.5元/吨，环比+2.08%；焦煤价格为1665.5元/吨，环比+6.46%。 执业证书号：S0010523120003邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为86.46（-0.1%）/319.75（+0.39%）/82.46（+2.65%）/147.97（+1.99%）/211.61（-3.17%）万吨。开工率：高炉产能利用率882.79%，环比+0.21pct；高炉开工率76.9%，环比+0.75pct；电炉产能利用率51.94%，环比+0.33pct；电炉开工率62.82%，环比+0.64pct。库存：总社库1709.25万吨，环比-2.86%；总厂库731.5万吨，环比-1.99%；螺纹社库909.17万吨，环比-2.69%；螺纹厂库380.8万吨，环比-2.49%。 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块，推荐华菱钢铁，建议关注南钢股份、中信特钢；产品创新推动钢铁在新兴领域应用，建议关注高端产品持续放量的久立特材、冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性标的甬金股份。 1.钢铁周报：库存仍待去化，钢价偏弱运行2024-03-092.寒潮影响下游开工，关注节后复产进度2024-02-253.看好钢铁板块低估值央国企投资机会2024-01-28 ⚫风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1.1本周钢铁板块走势.................................................................................................................................................41.2各钢铁板块走势.....................................................................................................................................................4 2.1个股周涨跌幅.........................................................................................................................................................52.2公司公告................................................................................................................................................................5 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨幅（%）.....................................................................................................................................4图表2本周钢铁子板块涨跌幅（%）..............................................................................................................................4图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）..........................................................................................................................................5图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.........................................................................................................................................5图表5公司公告概览.......................................................................................................................................................5图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）........................................................................................................................................6图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.....................................................................................................................................6图表8板材价格（元/吨）...............................................................................................................................................6图表9铁矿石及两焦合约价（元/吨）.............................................................................................................................7图表10铁矿石期现价格（元/吨）..................................................................................................................................7图表11焦炭期现价格（元/吨）......................................................................................................................................7图表12焦煤期现价格（元/吨）......................................................................................................................................7图表13焦炭库存：国内247家钢厂（万吨）................................................................................................................8图表14港口焦炭库存（万吨）.......................................................................................................................................8图表15各品种钢材钢厂库存监控...................................................................................................................................8图表16钢材社会库存：合计（万吨）............................................................................................................................9图表17钢材社会库存：分类（万吨）............................................................................................................................9图表18全国钢厂高炉产能利用率（%）.........................................................................................................................9图表19全国高炉开工率（247家）（%）.......................................................................................................................9图表20样本钢厂电炉产能利用率：全国（%）............................................................................................................10图表21全国电炉开工率（%）.....................................................................................................................................10图表22全国冷轧板卷钢厂实际周产量（万吨）............................................................................................................10图表23全国热轧板卷钢厂实际周产量（万吨）............................................................................................................10图表24全国建材钢厂线材实际周产量（万吨）....................................