成本支撑减弱，热卷期价重心继续下移「2024.03.08」研究员：蔡跃辉期货从业资格号F0251444期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101助理研究员：李秋荣期货从业资格号F03101823王凯慧期货从业资格号F03100511热轧卷板市场周报关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热卷期价继续下行。钢厂利润收缩向上挤压炉料，炼钢成本支撑下滑，另外宏观面利好影响边际减弱，热卷期价随着库存量增加，逐步走弱。后市展望：供应端，本期热卷周度产量由降转增，产能利用率上调至80%附近，整体上产量回升较快。需求端，下游复产增多，采购量有所增加，但力度相对有限，库存量延续小幅提升。最后，关注宏观面对市场情绪影响。操作策略：HC2405合约考虑反弹择机抛空，止损参考3930。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡下行本周，HC2405合约震荡下行。本周，HC2405合约弱于HC2410合约，8日价差为12元/吨，周环比-22元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院020000040000060000080000010000001200000330034003500360037003800390040004100420043002023-05-162023-05-242023-06-012023-06-092023-06-192023-06-292023-07-072023-07-172023-07-252023-08-022023-08-102023-08-182023-08-282023-09-052023-09-132023-09-212023-10-092023-10-172023-10-252023-11-022023-11-102023-11-202023-11-282023-12-062023-12-142023-12-222024-01-022024-01-102024-01-182024-01-262024-02-052024-02-212024-02-292024-03-08HC2405合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close0102030405060702023-10-232023-10-272023-11-022023-11-082023-11-142023-11-202023-11-242023-11-302023-12-062023-12-122023-12-182023-12-222023-12-282024-01-042024-01-102024-01-162024-01-222024-01-262024-02-012024-02-072024-02-212024-02-272024-03-042024-03-08HC2405-HC2410合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单减少，前20名持仓净空增加3月8日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为289623吨，周环比-42056吨。3月8日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空11125张，较上一周+19917张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-150000-100000-5000005000010000015000050000250000450000650000850000105000012500001450000日期2020-02-242020-04-092020-05-282020-07-152020-08-282020-10-212020-12-042021-01-202021-03-122021-04-282021-06-172021-08-022021-09-152021-11-092021-12-232022-02-152022-03-312022-05-232022-07-072022-08-222022-10-132022-11-282023-01-122023-03-062023-04-202023-06-082023-07-262023-09-082023-11-012023-12-152024-01-31热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002022-01-042022-01-252022-02-222022-03-152022-04-072022-04-282022-05-242022-06-152022-07-062022-07-272022-08-172022-09-072022-09-292022-10-272022-11-172022-12-082022-12-292023-01-202023-02-172023-03-102023-03-312023-04-242023-05-182023-06-082023-07-032023-07-242023-08-142023-09-042023-09-252023-10-242023-11-142023-12-052023-12-262024-01-172024-02-20库存期货:热轧卷板（吨） 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格下调3月8日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价3880元/吨，周环比-30元/吨；全国均价为3966元/吨，周环比-72元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格强于期货价格，8日基差为29元/吨，周环比+4元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院330038004300480053002022-01-042022-01-212022-02-142022-03-032022-03-222022-04-112022-04-272022-05-182022-06-072022-06-242022-07-132022-08-012022-08-182022-09-062022-09-262022-10-182022-11-042022-11-232022-12-122022-12-292023-01-182023-02-092023-02-282023-03-172023-04-062023-04-242023-05-152023-06-012023-06-202023-07-102023-07-272023-08-152023-09-012023-09-202023-10-132023-11-012023-11-202023-12-072023-12-262024-01-152024-02-012024-02-23全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-400-200020040060080010003000350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-052021-02-222021-04-022021-05-192021-06-302021-08-102021-09-222021-11-092021-12-202022-02-072022-03-182022-05-052022-06-162022-07-272022-09-062022-10-252022-12-052023-01-162023-03-032023-04-142023-05-302023-07-122023-08-222023-10-102023-11-202023-12-292024-02-19热卷5月合约期现基差5月基差期货收盘价(5月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格持平3月8日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报923元/干吨，周环比-18元/干吨。3月8日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2240元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院65851051251451651852052252454006008001000120014001600180020002021-01-052021-02-222021-04-022021-05-192021-06-302021-08-102021-09-222021-11-092021-12-202022-02-072022-03-182022-05-052022-06-162022-07-272022-09-062022-10-252022-12-052023-01-162023-03-032023-04-142023-05-302023-07-122023-08-222023-10-102023-11-202023-12-292024-02-19青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨18002300280033003800430048002021-01-042021-02-022021-03-092021-04-082021-05-122021-06-102021-07-122021-08-102021-09-082021-10-182021-11-162021-12-152022-01-142022-02-172022-03-182022-04-202022-05-232022-06-222022-07-212022-08-192022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-12-232023-01-292023-02-272023-03-282023-04-272023-05-312023-06-302023-07-312023-08-292023-09-272023-11-022023-12-012024-01-022024-01-312024-03-06天津港一级冶金焦 8「上游市场情况」本期中国47港到港总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2544.5万吨，环比增加466.0万吨。2月26日-3月3日中国47港到港总量2524.4万吨，环比增加405.6万吨；中国45港到港总量2377万吨，环比增加346.4万吨；北方六港到港总量为1241.6万吨，环比增加173.7万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石到港量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-20002004006008001200140016001800200022002400260028002022-01-022022-01-302022-02-272022-03-272022-04-242022-05-222022-06-192022-07-172022-08-142022-09-112022-10-092022-11-062022-12-042023-01-012023-01-292023-02-262023-03-262023-04-232023-05-212023-06-182023-07-162023-08-132023-09-082023-10-082023-11-052023-12-032023-12-312024-01-282024-02-25澳巴铁矿石运总量增减澳巴总量-1500-1000-50005001000150