聚烯烃日报：PP下游开工提升，需求端持续修复

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性。聚烯烃盘面窄幅整理，驱动偏弱。LLDPE下游农膜开工率41%（0），包装膜开工率53%（0）；PP拉丝下游塑编开工率44%（+4%），BOPP开工率50%（+4%），聚烯烃需求端持续修复。PP两套检修装置开车重启，PP开工负荷提升。石化库存去化速率偏慢，贸易商让利出货。欧洲与东南亚PP内外盘价差持续走高，PP出口窗口打开，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭。预计短期聚烯烃维持窄幅震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存88万吨，较上一日去库0.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在-70元/吨，PP华东基差在-60元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，油价偏弱小幅震荡，原油制聚烯烃成本支撑减弱，丙烷价格反弹，PDH制PP生产利润接近盈亏平衡。广西鸿谊15 PP装置、利和知信30 PP装置开车重启，PP开工负荷提升。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨