信创造就X86 CPU龙头，AI打开DCU广阔空间

Hygon Information Technology（688041） Equity Research·Company Research·Semiconductor 1 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] X86 CPU leader created by IT Application Innovation, with AI unlocking DCU potential Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E Revenue (RMB mn) 5,125 6,008 8,353 11,136 Growth (YoY %) 121.83% 17.23% 39.03% 33.32% Net profit (RMB mn) 803.54 1,243.66 1,749.11 2,378.72 Growth (YoY %) 145.65% 54.77% 40.64% 36.00% EPS (RMB) 0.35 0.54 0.75 1.02 P/E (X) 199.30 152.13 109.53 80.54 Source: Wind, Soochow Securities Key words: # Import substitution Investment Thesis ◼ The domestic leader in X86 CPUs, a front-runner in domestic AI chip production. Hygon obtained AMD X86 architecture technology authorization in 2016 and independently iterated upon it to launch self-developed CPUs and DCU products. From 2018 to 2022, Hygon's revenue grew 106 times, reaching RMB5.125bn in 2022 with net profit of RMB804mn. With enhanced economies of scale, we expect Hygon's profitability to continuously improve. With leading product performance among domestic peers, Hygon is one of the few domestic CPU and DCU companies simultaneously entering the IT Innovation and commercial markets. The company has gained recognition from financial, telecommunications, and internet clients in the commercial market, with internet sector revenue reaching RMB200mn in 2021, accounting for 11% of the total revenue. ◼ Industry IT innovation unlocks potential of the domestic CPU market, and Hygon leads the performance ecosystem. In terms of X86 server chips, according to IDC data, X86 servers accounted for 97% of total server shipments in 2020, indicating a significant ecological advantage. In 2020, China's X86 server chip shipments reached 6.98 million units, with Hygon CPU product sales accounting for approximately 3.75%. We project that by 2027, SOE and central government agencies may achieve comprehensive localization. In 2022, China's server shipments amounted to approximately 4.48 million units, with government/industry IT innovation shipments reaching 0.52/2.06 million units respectively. Ecologically, Hygon CPUs are compatible with currently the most mainstream X86 architecture. Previously, most domestic industry institutions adopted X86 architecture products, and using Hygon products can achieve seamless transition of upper-layer applications with minimal migration risks. Technologically, Hygon has digested the authorized technology from AMD and has independently iterated to Hygon Four, with performance approaching international mainstream products. ◼ AI revolution and overseas sanctions create opportunities for Hygon's DCU business. On the demand side, global giants like Meta and OpenAI continue to increase investment in AI chips. On the production side, TSMC expects AI chip shipments to increase by 50%+ in the coming years. On Oct 17th, the US Department of Commerce announced plans to restrict the sale of A800 and H800 to China, highlighting the urgent need for import substitution. Hygon is at the forefront of domestic AI chip manufacturers and is expected to fully benefit from the accelerated import substitution of AI chips. Ecologically, Hygon's DCU is based on GPGPU architecture and is compatible with a general-purpose "CUDA-like" environment. In terms of performance, Hygon DCU's FP64 performance of Deep Calculation No.1 can reach the level of NVIDIA's A100 launched in 2020 and AMD's MI100 launched in 2020. The performance of the second-generation product has increased by 100%, and the third-generation product is expected to be launched in 2024. In terms of commercial applications, the company's DCU products have been certified by internet companies such as Baidu and Alibaba, and joint solutions have been launched. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We expect the net profit of the company in 2023-2025 to be Rmb1.244/1.749/2.379bn. We initiate coverage with "Buy" rating. ◼ Risks: Lower-than-expected policy support, technical R&D, or AI development. [Table_PicQuote] Price Performance Source: Wind [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 82.15 52-week Range (RMB) 49.31/102.00 P/B (X) 10.58 Market Cap (RMB mn) 190,944.37 Source: Wind Basic Data data BVPS (RMB) 7.77 Liabilities/assets (%) 17.76 Total Issued Shares (mn) 2,324.34 Shares outstanding (mn) 880.56 Source: Wind [Table_Report] Related reports Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Tianyi Ma (马天翼), Zijing Wang (王紫敬) and Shijie Wang (王世杰). [Table_Author] 29 Feb 2024 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -21%-9%3%15%27%39%51%63%75%87%2023/02/272023/06/282023/10/272024/02/25Hygon ITCSI 300 海光信息（688041） 证券研究报告·公司深度研究·半导体 2 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分