中国气候转型展望2023（英）

2 免费获取报告扫⼀一扫⼆二维码 关注公号 回复: “研究报告” 加⼊入“起点财经”微信群每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告;每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报;行研报告均为公开版, 权利归原作者所有, 起点财经仅分发做内部学习。 China'sClimateTransition:Outlook202327November2023AuthorsLauriMyllyvirta,QiQin,ChengchengQiu,XinyiShenThisreportwaspublishedbytheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(CREA)withthesupportoftheHeinrichBöllFoundationʼs(Heinrich-Böll-Stiung)globalheadofficeinBerlin,Germany.ContributorsXunpengShi,MuyiYang,ShuruiWangEditorKathrynMiller,HannahEkbergTranslatorXiaoyingYouDesignerWendiWuPhotobyLiYangonUnsplashProjectcoordinatorEllaSoesanto,XinyiShenAcknowledgementsCREAgratefullyacknowledgesthesupport,feedback,andinsightreceivedfromDr.PaulKohlenbergandJörgHaas.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtoanyoftheaforementioned.i AboutCREATheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(CREA)isanindependentresearchorganisationfocusedonrevealingthetrends,causes,andhealthimpacts,aswellasthesolutions,toairpollution.CREAusesscientificdata,researchandevidencetosupporttheeffortsofgovernments,companiesandcampaigningorganisationsworldwideintheireffortstomovetowardscleanenergyandcleanair.Webelievethateffectiveresearchandcommunicationarethekeytosuccessfulpolicies,investmentdecisionsandadvocacyefforts.CREAwasfoundedin2019inHelsinki,FinlandandhasstaffinseveralEuropeanandAsiancountries.AbouttheHeinrichBöllFoundationTheHeinrichBöllFoundation(Heinrich-Böll-Stiung)isapublicfundedinstituteinGermanyforgreenvisionsandprojectswithaninternationalnetworkencompassingpartnerprojectsinapproximately60countries.TheFoundation'sprimarytaskispoliticalawarenessbuildinginGermanyandabroadtopromotedemocraticwill,socio-politicalcommitmentandinternationalunderstanding.Itisguidedbythebasicpoliticalvaluesofecology,democracy,solidarity,andnonviolence.TheFoundationcurrentlyhasofficesinmorethan30countriesaroundtheworld.DisclaimerThispublicationisproducedbytheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(hereinaerreferredtoasʻCREAʼ)headquarteredinFinland,inaccordancewiththelocallawsandregulations.CREAisaglobalresearchorganisationfocusedonpromotingcleanenergyandstudyingsolutionstoairpollution.CREAispoliticallyindependent.Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofthematerialonmapscontainedinthisreportdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeverconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Thecontentandexpressionofviewsandopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarebasedonthoseoftheauthorsoftheindependentscientificanalysisandstudyduringthetimeofresearch,andtheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialpolicyorposition,orrepresenttheviewsoropinions,ofCREA,oritsmembersand/orfunders.CREAdoesnotguaranteethetimeliness,accuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationcontainedinthispublication.ThispublicationisONLYforthepurposesofinformationsharing,environmentalprotectionandpublicinterests.Therefore,thispublicationshouldnotbeusedasthereferenceofanyinvestmentorotherdecision-makingprocess.CREAassumesnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyerrorsoromissionsinthecontentofthispublication.ThisreportisoriginallywritteninEnglishandtranslatedintoChinesesubsequently.Incaseofadiscrepancy,theEnglishversionprevails.ii ContentsExecutivesummary11Introduction42UnderstandingChinaʼsgreenhousegasemissions82.1Themeteoricriseofemissions82.2Chinaʼsemissionsinaninternationalcontext113PathwaystocarbonneutralityforChinaandtheworld153.1Overview153.2Globalpathways173.2.1CentralBanksandSupervisorsNetworkforGreeningtheFinancialSystem(NGFS)173.2.2ClimateActionTracker(CAT)193.2.3InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)193.3PathwaysforChina203.3.1InstituteofClimateChangeandSustainableDevelopment(ICCSD)233.3.2SchoolofEnvironmentandNaturalResources,RenminUniversity(SENR-RMU)233.3.3InstituteofAtmosphericEnvironment,ChinaAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanning(CAEP-IAE)andElectricPowerPlanningandEngineeringInstitute(EPPEI)243.3.4NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity(NCEPU)andPekingUniversity(PKU)253.3.5EnergyFoundationChina(EFC)andCenterforGlobalSustainabilityattheUniversityofMaryland(CGS-UMD)254MeasuringandbenchmarkingChinaʼsprogress274.1TotalCO2emissions274.1.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks294.1.2Policiesinplace294.1.3Datadisclosure354.2Non-CO2greenhousegases364.2.1Policiesinplace364.2.2Datadisclosure384.3Totalenergysupplyanddemand394.3.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks394.3.2Policiesinplace:Actionforgreenandlow-carbonenergytransition454.3.3Datadisclosure494.4Electricitygenerationandcapacity504.4.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks514.4.2Focuson:ChinaʼsCoalPowerSurge554.4.3Policiesinplace574.4.4Datadisclosure674.5Industry684.5.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks694.5.2Policiesinplace:Peakingcarbondioxideemissionsinindustry74 4.5.3Focus:Ironandsteel804.5.4Datadisclosure844.6Buildings854.6.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks864.6.2Policiesinplace:Peakingcarbondioxideemissionsintheresidentialsector884.6.3Datadisclosure904.7Transport904.7.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks924.7.2Policiesinplace:Actionsforpromotinggreenandlow-carbontransportation954.7.3Datadisclosure984.8Provincialactions984