2024月度策略报告：春节热烈备货，节后需求释放存疑

2024年02月05日 春节热烈备货，节后需求释放存疑 观点摘要： 分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 2024年1月行情回顾：元旦前后聚酯原料涨至高点，终端对高价原料的抵触心理愈发浓厚，进而造成聚酯让利无法换取产销放量，聚酯工厂自身备货充足下也没有较高的接货意愿。1月第三周起，原油企稳走强，聚酯开工不降反升，同时多家PTA供应商官宣装置检修计划。随后涤纶长丝工厂陆续公布春节期间计划，但龙头工厂检修数量较少，预计开工下降速度慢于去年，是春节前的利好。月底终端开启一周的节前备货，聚酯产销明显持续放量，聚酯开工高于往年同期，部分聚酯工厂计划春节期间检修时间较短。乙二醇受装置检修、计划检修增加以及红海地区地缘因素影响，乙二醇供应端存减量预期，乙二醇价格维持偏强走势且现货基差走强。 相关报告 20240115《风萧萧兮易水寒，曙光尚未出现》20240115《冷饭热炒，红海变化继续带来扰动》20240122《聚酯降负慢于预期，年底备货带来转机》20240122《国内装置负荷提升对冲进口减量》20240129《春节备货预支节后需求，价格易涨难跌》20240129《下游基本完成节前备货，续涨动力不足》 后市展望：PX方面，预计将跟随原油区间运行，价格区间为8300-8700元/吨。2月国内及日韩装置暂无检修计划，仍将保持较高的开工率，前期东南亚和中东检修的部分装置也将重启，届时亚洲PX开工将进一步抬升。因为PTA主力供应商在2月官宣多套装置的检修计划，所以实际需求将有减少。随着集中检修期的临近和调油预期支撑下，PX价格底部仍存在支撑，但上行有阻力。PTA方面，预计将震荡偏弱，价格区间为5600-5900元/吨。成本方面无法带来实质性的利好支撑，逸盛宁波200万吨装置1月底开始检修、逸盛大连375万吨装置计划2月底检修、四川能投100万吨装置预计重启，总体供应量维持在偏高水平。当前PTA加工费处于400元/吨以上的高位，虽然检修计划已官宣，但节后的实际执行或有差异。聚酯及终端都已在节前完成备货，年后预计消化库存为主，所以PTA库存将有所累积。MEG方面，预计将区间震荡，价格区间为4500-4750元/吨。受近期乙二醇价格及利润改善影响，部分装置负荷提升以及检修计划推迟，乙二醇整体产量仍维持较高水平，对冲了进口减量带来的利好影响。由于2月春节假期下游检修增加，节后的需求已部分前置到节前，终端备货之后的聚酯产销直线下滑，所以需要关注终端企业的复工以及聚酯工厂的产销情况。若下游需求未能在节后迎来一波释放，则库存难题又将阻碍乙二醇价格上行幅度。 风险提示：原油价格大幅波动，节后需求释放不及预期，调油需求再度抢跑 目录 （一）行情回顾：受成本及供给影响，PX价格先抑后扬.................................................................................................. 5（二）PX开工负荷微幅下滑，亚洲其它装置停车较多...................................................................................................... 6（三）PXN保持相对高位，PX-MX收窄............................................................................................................................. 7 二、PTA........................................................................................................................................................................... 9 （一）行情回顾：成本支撑叠加聚酯年前备货推动价格重心上移.................................................................................... 9（二）开工保持相对高位，月底官宣多套检修计划.......................................................................................................... 10（三）库存绝对高位并未改变，海外市场是新增长点...................................................................................................... 12 三、MEG....................................................................................................................................................................... 13 （一）行情回顾：12月下旬以来聚酯商品中最亮眼的品种............................................................................................. 13（二）煤制开工提升迅速，利润好转推动负荷增加.......................................................................................................... 14（三）进口减量实际兑现，港口库存强势去化.................................................................................................................. 16 四、聚酯......................................................................................................................................................................... 17 （一）行情回顾：成本主推叠加年前备货需求释放.......................................................................................................... 17（二）开工处于相对高位，产销情况先热后冷.................................................................................................................. 17（三）节前备货带来长丝库存明显下降，实物库存高于权益库存.................................................................................. 19（四）2023年末出口皆有回落，瓶片与切片出口量保持相对高位................................................................................. 21 五、纺服消费................................................................................................................................................................. 22 （一）季节性因素导致织造开机显著下滑......................................................................................................................... 22（二）海外或将开启主动补库，美国纺服进口去中国化有所暂缓.................................................................................. 23 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································5图4：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································5图5：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································6图6：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）·····················································································································································6图8：PX加工费（美元/吨）···························································································