聚烯烃日报：原油持续走高，成本支撑增强

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议暂观望。聚烯烃盘面小幅上涨，现货价格涨跌互现。浙石化三线PP装置停车检修，PP开工率小幅下降，PE开工负荷维持。原油制LL与PDH制PP生产利润均处于盈亏平衡线附近。临近假期，上游库存与中游环节库存库存去化，库存转移至下游，但终端工厂预计陆续停止采购，市场需求或继续减少，需求弱势。LL进口窗口维持微利，PP进口窗口关闭。聚烯烃近期供需双弱，预计短期区间震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存54万吨，较上一工作日累库5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差在-150元/吨，PP华东基差在-160元/吨。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油窄幅震荡，原油制PP生产利润维持亏损，PDH制PP生产利润接近盈亏平衡线，成本支撑尚可。浙江石化三线（45万吨/年）PP装置停车检修，PP开工负荷小幅下降。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 进出口方面，LL进口窗口维持微利，PP进口窗口关闭，PP出口窗口打开。 ■策略 （1）单边：无。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨..............