分析师：韩致立Ernie Hon（中央編號：AGH719）黄焯伟Steve Wong（中央編號：ASG163）erniehon@eif.com.hkstevewong@eif.com.hk安信国际研究部2024年1月26日请参阅本报告尾部免责声明资金有望逐步回流---安信国际2024年度投资策略会港股策略报告 2~~ 大市回顾~~ 环球主要股市表现及估值32023年，环球主要市场均上扬，但港股及A股逆势下滑，表现落后。自2018年，港股表现也欠佳，大部分时间落后环球主要市场。港股估值也是低于环球主要市场。恒指目前预测市盈率不足9倍，美股标指则达到22倍。美股及欧股于2023年继续领涨环球股市。亚洲市场中，日本、韩国、印度及越南股市也表现亮丽。年初至今，港股继续表现落后，并于1.22创出本轮熊市的新低。(2024-1-25)收市价201820192020202120222023YTD 市盈率(倍)市净率股息率(点数)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)T12M预测(倍)(%)大中华恒生指数16,212-13.69.1-3.4-14.1-15.5-13.8-4.98.68.30.914.27沪深300指数3,343-25.336.127.2-5.2-21.6-11.4-2.612.512.01.402.85台湾加权指数18,003-8.623.322.823.7-22.426.80.421.117.82.133.15其他金砖国俄罗斯RTS美元指数1,119-7.645.3-10.415.0-39.211.63.32.11.90.425.93巴西IBOV指数128,16915.031.62.9-11.94.722.3-4.59.39.11.574.97印度 Sensex 30指数70,7015.914.415.822.04.418.7-2.125.223.72.911.24富时/JSE南非综合指数74,041-11.48.24.124.1-0.95.3-3.710.711.21.444.74亚太股市S&P/ASX澳洲200指数7,555-6.918.4-1.513.0-5.57.8-0.516.015.42.163.97日经指数36,236-12.118.216.04.9-9.428.28.329.625.72.021.67韩国综合指数2,470-17.37.730.83.6-24.918.7-7.016.315.70.881.62新加坡海峡指数3,148-9.85.0-11.89.84.1-0.3-2.910.710.21.075.30泰国SET指数1,376-10.81.0-8.314.40.7-15.2-2.816.616.41.343.21吉隆坡综合指数1,504-5.9-6.02.4-3.7-4.6-2.73.413.615.11.354.39雅加达综合指数7,178-2.51.7-5.110.14.16.2-1.318.415.21.973.42菲律宾综合指数6,674-12.84.7-8.6-0.2-7.8-1.83.513.312.31.602.53越南证交所指数1,170-9.37.714.935.7-32.812.23.615.012.91.711.82欧美股市标普500指数4,894-6.228.916.326.9-19.424.22.622.122.24.601.45纳斯达克指数15,511-3.935.243.621.4-33.143.43.336.936.66.210.75英国富时100指数7,530-12.512.1-14.314.30.93.8-2.610.110.11.654.03德国DAX指数16,907-18.325.53.515.8-12.320.30.912.612.21.453.14法国CAC 40指数7,464-11.026.4-7.128.9-9.516.5-1.012.513.11.783.01意大利富时MIB指数30,158-16.128.3-5.423.0-13.328.0-0.67.78.01.134.45西班牙IBEX35指数9,917-15.011.8-15.57.9-5.622.8-1.810.410.40.964.15数据来源：彭博、安信国际 资金从中国及新兴市场流走4我们参考MSCI中国、新兴市场、日本及印度ETF的资金流状况。2023年在美国加息等因素下，资金出现净流出的状况。在多种因素的影响下，欧美基金加快沽出，以满足赎回需求，加深市场的减持力度。同时，其他亚洲市场如日本、印度等市场关注度提升，前者受惠估值重估，后者受惠较佳的经济增长。资金由中国市场流失至其他市场。MSCI ETF中国及新兴市场资金流MSCI ETF日本及印度资金流来源：彭博、安信国际整理来源：彭博、安信国际整理(8,000)(6,000)(4,000)(2,000)02,0004,0006,000201520162017201820192020202120222023中国新兴市场百万美元MSCI ETF 资金流(8,000)(6,000)(4,000)(2,000)02,0004,0006,000201520162017201820192020202120222023日本印度百万美元MSCI ETF 资金流 陆港股通月度净流入金额港股通陆股通(亿港元)(亿人民币)2021.013,106.24399.572021.02749.30412.242021.03-126.90187.112021.04432.84526.072021.05435.45557.762021.0650.37153.852021.07-635.02107.622021.08-197.82269.052021.09180.62305.192021.1097.82328.402021.11-47.60184.902021.12498.66889.922022.01438.25167.742022.0245.9339.802022.03488.80-450.832022.04105.2818.792022.05464.17168.672022.06533.88729.602022.0720.15-210.692022.0884.00127.132022.09348.96-112.312022.10737.54-573.002022.11501.65600.952022.1294.19350.132023.012.981,412.902023.0282.2792.582023.03671.38354.402023.04273.92-45.532023.05224.61-121.372023.06-131.57180.982023.07158.00470.112023.08755.30-896.832023.09544.63-374.602023.10231.55-447.872023.11184.49-17.772023.1278.93-129.262024.01214.32-208.67注：2024年1月份数据截至1.25资料来源：彭博、安信国际港股通及陆股通的月度净流入情况52,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002014/11/302015/1/312015/3/312015/5/312015/7/312015/9/302015/11/302016/1/312016/3/312016/5/312016/7/312016/9/302016/11/302017/1/312017/3/312017/5/312017/7/312017/9/302017/11/302018/1/312018/3/312018/5/312018/7/312018/9/302018/11/302019/1/312019/3/312019/5/312019/7/312019/9/302019/11/302020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/302022/11/302023/1/312023/3/312023/5/312023/7/312023/9/302023/11/30恒生指数及沪深300恒生指数（左轴)沪深300（右轴)恒生指数沪深300-1,000-800-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002014.112015.012015.032015.052015.072015.092015.112016.012016.032016.052016.072016.092016.112017.012017.032017.052017.072017.092017.112018.012018.032018.052018.072018.092018.112019.012019.032019.052019.072019.092019.112020.012020.032020.052020.072020.092020.112021.012021.032021.052021.072021.092021.112022.012022.032022.052022.072022.092022.112023.012023.032023.052023.072023.092023.112024.01陆港通月度净流入金额陆股通, 右轴(亿人民币)港股通(亿港元)注：沪港通从2014.11.17开始, 深港通从2016.12.5开始; 2024.1数据截至1月25日资料来源：彭博，安信国际港股通（亿港元）陆股通（亿人名币）去年1月录得1413亿元(人民币)纪录月度净流入金额后，每日陆股通便转为较频繁的流出（见下页图）。从去年5月起，净流出情况变本加厉，于8月的月度净流出金额达到纪录高位的897亿元，反映外资提速从中国股市流走。港股通情况较佳，今年以来大都处于月度净流入，但自5月中，日净流出的频率也增加。但当港股于8、9月跌势较急之时，港股通录得较大净流入，北水愿意在港股弱势时趁低吸纳。 港股通及陆股通的每日净流入情况-200.0-100.00.0100.0200.0300.0400.08,000.012,000.016,000.020,000.024,000.028,000.032,000.02019/8/12019/9/12019/10/12019/11/12019/12/12020/1/12020/2/12020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/12022/12/12023/1/12023/2/12023/3/12023/4/12023/5/12023/6/12023/7/12023/8/12023/9/12023/10/12