铜锌周报：宏观利空，产业支撑凸显

铜锌周报 有色金属 宏观利空，产业支撑凸显 姓名：龙奥明宝城期货投资咨询部从业资格证号：F3035632投资咨询证号：Z0014648电话：0571-87006873邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 核心观点 铜：宏观利空，产业利多，铜价震荡运行 上周沪铜期价呈现探底回升态势伴随着持仓量下降，短期空头了结意愿较强。近期美元指数在100一线触底反弹，铜价承压下行。美国12月通胀有所反弹，不利于美元指数下行，对应铜价反弹乏力。产业上，矿端趋紧，TC加工费持续下调；电解铜库存低位震荡；随着铜价下跌，下游接货意愿较强。宏观利空，产业利多，预计铜价将维持震荡，参考区间67500-69000。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 锌：期价上行乏力，预计转为震荡运行 上周沪锌期价呈现震荡，主力期价在21000一线有明显支撑。近期锌价高位回落主因海外伦锌去库预期较弱。国内上游锌矿库存有所下降，TC加工费小幅下调，锌锭产量维持绝对高位；锌锭社库低位震荡；下游镀锌钢厂和社库分化，钢厂累库而社库去化，下游对当前锌价接货意愿不强。预计期价将偏弱运行，下方关注21000支撑。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 正文目录 铜市场概述....................................................................5锌市场概述....................................................................51宏观因素....................................................................62铜..........................................................................72.1市场回顾...............................................................72.2铜精矿供应趋紧.........................................................82.3电解铜供应高位.........................................................92.4电解铜去库放缓........................................................103锌.........................................................................113.1行情回顾..............................................................113.2锌矿维持宽松..........................................................123.3精炼锌产量高位........................................................133.4内外库存分化..........................................................143.5镀锌产量维持高位......................................................144结论.......................................................................16 图表目录 图1铜周度数据一览..................................................................................................................................................5图2锌周度数据一览..................................................................................................................................................5图3美债走势................................................................................................................................................................6图4美元走势................................................................................................................................................................6图5中美欧制造业PMI..............................................................................................................................................6图6铜期价走势...........................................................................................................................................................7图7铜沪伦比值...........................................................................................................................................................7图8伦铜升贴水...........................................................................................................................................................7图9 1#电解铜升贴水季节性....................................................................................................................................7图10 1#电解铜基差....................................................................................................................................................7图11铜月差..................................................................................................................................................................7图12 ICSG铜精矿全球产量.....................................................................................................................................8图13铜砂矿及精矿进口...........................................................................................................................................8图14铜精矿港口库存................................................................................................................................................8图15铜精矿TC加工费.............................................................................................................................................8图16精炼铜供需平衡................................................................................................................................................9图17电解铜产量.........................................................................................................................................................9图18电解铜净进口....................................................................................................................................................9图19国内电解铜库存..............................................................................................................................................10图20国内显性库存（Mysteel社库+保税区）...............................................................................................10图21全球交易所库存（SHFE+LME+COMEX+保税区）............................................................................10图22锌价走势.......................................................