油脂日报：利空渐被消化，油脂震荡上涨

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2305合约7054元/吨，环比上涨48元，涨幅0.69%；昨日收盘豆油2305合约7420元/吨，环比上涨50元，涨幅0.68%；昨日收盘菜油2305合约7855元/吨，环比上涨86元，涨幅1.11%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货7039元/吨，环比下跌39元，跌幅0.55%，现货基差P05-15，环比下跌85；天津地区一级豆油现货7960元/吨，环比上涨41，涨幅0.52%，现货基差Y05+540，环比下跌9；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格无报价。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：国内豆粕库存再度增加，整体仍维持高位。监测数据显示，截止到2024年第1周末，国内豆粕库存量为88.3万吨，较上周的84.8万吨增加3.5万吨，环比增加4.12%。其中：沿海库存量为79.1万吨，较上周的73.2万吨增加5.9万吨，环比增加7.99%。后续大豆到港较多，国内豆粕供给潜力较大，而下游豆粕提货一般，预计近期豆粕库存将继续回升。阿根廷豆油(2月船期) C&F价格899美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调11美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4月船期)C&F价格885美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调14美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（2月船期）C&F价格1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调50美元/吨；进口菜油(4月船期)C&F价格1070元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调50美元/吨。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 昨日三大油脂价格震荡上涨，外盘提振国内油脂市场，受制于库存压力，三大油脂涨幅有限。菜油方面，目前菜油价格有一定安全边际，且随着近端利空被逐渐消化，菜籽油下跌幅度预计不会太大，若美豆企稳，原油也没有进一步下跌，菜籽油有望走出大幅下挫行情，震荡偏强运行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析............................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷...........................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨...........................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨..............................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨..............................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................9图25:中国大豆周度压榨量丨单位：万吨................