开年首周，人民币汇率能否延续升值行情

10CPI FOMC 12-157.065-7.175 20111290 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1..............................................................................11.2..........................................................................21.2.1.............................................................................................21.2.2.............................................................................................51.2.3.............................................................................................6 2.................................................................................................7 2.1-..................................................................72.2.......................................................................72.2.1.....................................................................................72.2.2.....................................................................................82.2.3..................................................................................92.2.4................................................................................102.3.................................................................................112.3.1..................................................................112.3.2.............................................................12 3........................................................................................13 3.1.................................................................133.2...................................................................................153.3..........................................................16...........................................................................................17..................................................................................................18……………………………………………………………………………….19.........................................................................................................20......................................................................................................20 1.1.1..................................................................................................11.1.120231225-29.........21.1.2.....................................................................21.2.1 2023...................................................................................................................31.2.1 2015-2022USDCNH.................................................................................................................................42.1.1...............................................................................................72.2.1..........................................................72.2.2..............................................................72.2.3..........................................................82.2.4................................................................................82.2.5%..............................................................92.2.6...................................................................102.2.7 NDFUSDCNH........................................................................112.2.8 USDCNY25Delta%.........................112.3.1..............................................112.3.2........................................................................112.3.3.............................................122.3.4.......................................................................123.3.12024.1.1-1.5....................................161.................................172%..................................................................18 3...................................................194Shibor%............................................................................195SOFR%.............................................................................196%.................................................................................207....................................................................................20 1. 1.1 202312 251229CFETSBIS SDR1229 16:30 2%11A7.10 USDCNHUSDCNYBloomberg 1.2 1.2.1 FOMC 12 20241 2 根据对2015-2022年七年来，人民币即期汇率在历年年末最后一周及第二年年初第一周表现来看，人民币汇率在开年首周基本能延续前一年最后一周的升值走势。那么2024年开年首周，人民币汇率是否真的能重演历史，延续升值行情？若从我国12月PMI的公布情况来看，我们不排除开盘低开（人民币汇率贬值）的可能，但年初的人民币升值行情或值得关注。 20241 2-1 57.065-7.175 1.2.2 1.2.3 2. 2.1- 12297.0914126 Refinitiv Bloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 1147.3%20193 2.2.3 2.2.4 1229NDF6.9425410USDCNY25Delta1113961 2.3 2.3.1 122924037.09261448564 Bloomberg 2.3.2 122924037.0890384553 3. 3.1 4.2023123112PMI49%0.450.4%0.2PMI50.3%0.1 202421020241-2PMI 3.2 3.3 iFinD / 136310008400 8888 910www.nanhua.net603093