聚烯烃日报：受地缘影响，聚烯烃短期偏强

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 短期偏强。受红海地缘局势影响，多家航运企业选择绕道运输，事件仍在发酵，聚烯烃盘面持续上涨。沙特西部地区Yanbu与Rabigh商品需通过红海出印度洋，受该事件影响最大。沙特PE产能1132万吨/年，西部两地PE产能为359万吨/年，受影响地区PE产能占沙特总产能31.7%，占海外总产能3.1%。沙特PP产能551万吨/年，西部两地PP产能为178万吨/年，受影响地区PP产能占沙特总产能32.3%，占海外总产能2.6%，短期对聚烯烃价格影响偏强。LL进口窗口维持打开，海关11月进出口数据显示，PE进口量约为121万吨，仍维持较高进口量，连续四月进口量超120万吨，PP进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 联系人 ■市场分析 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com 库存方面，石化库存54万吨，较上一日去库3.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-90元/吨，PP华东基差在-120元/吨，基差走弱。 生产利润及国内开工方面，红海地缘局势影响，国际油价上涨，聚烯烃再度走强，聚烯烃成本支撑增强。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 宁夏宝丰50 PE装置临时停车，PE开工负荷下降，维持高位，PP开工未变，处于低位。聚烯烃标品与非标品排产方面，LL与PP拉丝排产增加。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口持续打开，11月PE进口量约为121万吨，仍维持较高进口量，连续四月进口量超120万吨，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：短期偏强。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.............