政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？

VIEWPOINT Are Government orcorporate bond yieldsa better benchmark forUK real estate pricing? We explore whether index-linked Government bondor BBB corporate bondyields are more usefulthan nominal Governmentband yields far analysingprime real estate pricing CERE RESEARCHDECEMBER2023 Kcytakcaways –P-inu Ie vs yiulus Ieu ir tf lus. IB rflctlks l ulluu, Llu'a tyed inl uresl ra. urviroirner, l. Ihe s'aa:d belwall p irrel:is n 1ye- rrnert to nd l:is rernains ghtr parer, w th the st denale rlme ree estate yle : s rose1 th= last 1 months, but spr2ec scve no rir al and resl ollt yleldssmaln : g 1ar th an usue –mall spio Pc" Gon 't lsonc Y ols wroLsrvodJ clul g -lo Clee Fi'te'risl Clisis f 27 s. uu. UfcsF6. IGI S.Ja1f. I|I sI 9n(Rr. 9 dIcuIc os E 6.9r.as"a'e n'at : rc..at nnmt:itinr :t ir tial anma ard cas"t aw Irh Cur'cnt prie' inight lgukJnvuuu r xstx (r thy)rurpe igons bu,t histury shaesItre pi,cn rcu chanigrc quirkly –Incex-l kl Govarr : it l-oncs arc : b tar sonch ar forthe is-hee rels whor Eelir *a oslzls. tccaus: ceshI w giolis irlsgia lw u.types t''wus.'il. Tlht apa]ceteer er e:ds anl Ic va* irde I nke:l Cil: zielcs rasneer .ns; #'e 'tly osi ve throll. 6e, al-ar. 1 It is: nr.narre 'thar recer't yesrs –ccrer32: bcr-l viclil2 12ve ti ge alcw t clcoor cerro60eneone0lh ual usleal' yiclds sinc fuse iusl olts, ke lcul stu.c.olle' i is+ 3lerrit. *slialive o Coveirerl to'rds he yie d: loF3R JK crrrrat rrndis hae r er #anva pime re ae ylalr.s –.:urro' rcol cototc or: g "1igih: leck , afiw.rob bas.-:l o"Lhcw: oompul scr 3. ou. lhistel y slhieas hralt tl'c pesitie'i cantarge yu 'k , it: p'sssures oll teal eslale il ase I urg minte a* tes "art "allirg rat ertirn ot a ca: inig JK ntiatirrate ard ar errj rc, tfe rat rising: vcl Tntrocluction Thc u< has scoen a s.stalncd riso in both sroit-term nd loag-terminlorcsl iales ovor Lhe lasl Lwu yca's. This followod a dccaco ir whichthe B=nk ot England base rate was below 1%. borrowing cos.s ergtypically very low, and Gcve'n Tent bond yields wiere als ve'y low.supported hy a prngramme ef quan:itative ezsing. Have spreads ellmore consistenthetween real estateyiclcls and thescther easures, anddo such comparisonssuggest thal a tighitersprcadl overnominalGovernment bondyielcls couldbc sustainedgoing lorwardl? Cuer tha ssMe decace, a nde marin existed betwee rog astate yleldsand Govoinmmonl bod vields. Honce, whal mighl b Lle implicaLions [orU< real gstate pricing frcrl recent rises in Governrrlert anid corporstebcnd yields, ard hov: t=r do real stste yields have to rise to reflect thechanced financial environmeat? Tig hter spreads betveern uk resl estare yie ds and nomina Gavernmentbend yiclce: havo boon observexd ir the past, but trosc migkt havolesullud fron diffurenl inveslol expoclaliuris abuul cash fluw growrlhor ditterences in the risk prerni'un required or real estate investment. ea:ste vielc aqainst, index-linked nve'n ment lnnd yields3nd corpo*at boad vlclcls 3s alternatvos tc nominal Gowernmnt oor<lsHavo sprotkls been me'e coneis.ont be woon roal cstalo yields and thcsoother rleasurgs, aid do such coiparisons suggest thst = tighter spresdover nc ninal Covernnent ond yields coulc be sustained going torwa 'd? Norinal Gilt yieltls Target return rates tor prime rea estate invesiments shculd retlect therisk-free rata a return, plus a orenium for searing the risks associatedwitF resl estate, hut investors do not need tc rece ve tFeir target returrrate from cu'rent income if thc futuro ash flws from 'eal ststeirivcslrricrls alc oxpucloxd lu lisu. Tnorckorc, Lhc yiulc Lnuv roivuinitially can be lower th=n the'r target rate. This n'a=ns thst yields willbe 'nfl uenced not only by risk-free rates and risk pren'ums. sut alschy growth exectstions. Thc riosl curnmen p'oxy for a risk-frec rele n aalysis of JK comroicia ical oslalc is tno rode'Tiplioni yioldtor noilinal Ccrarr illent bcnds (or cits). 1O-vear its ar ctten used, cwing to the sirnil=rity bgtwgan theirlengtt and the nolding periods usec in many real est=te asset val uat'ons. 10-year Cilts =re no thecretcally Flgur 1 lustrates the yield far 1ci-year ai ts agjainst an sll arope'ty prime yie d over the last 35 years.The all oropcrty yiclc is corstivctec oo a comxotito of princ yiolca rocordcd by CBRE for thc high s.iccl retail.office, dnd incustrial sgctors of th UK rgal estate rnarket. This conparison shcvis that the spre=d betveen real estate yields anc 10-year noninal crlt yields has var'eda lc.t cver time. he average spread since 2013 Fa: heen 251hps, but was an y 86h.ps in the d..ade pr ar tc tlis.while there we'e periads ir the 79a0s snd 19ucis wlhen the 10-yesr Gilt yield wss shrve the prine real eststeyiclc. Morcover, nct al movcments in nom nal silt yicld: lcad te changos in roal cstate viclds This is boccausosc'ric [aclur s Lhal cavsc Gill yiulcl: lu lisu ol fall, such as charigirig cxpucld.iuris for inflalion, rrighil picducca d'tferent reaction in real estate vields. For gxamp a. it higher intlaz