政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？
VIEWPOINT
Are Government orcorporate bond yieldsa better benchmark forUK real estate pricing?
We explore whether index-linked Government bondor BBB corporate bondyields are more usefulthan nominal Governmentband yields far analysingprime real estate pricing
CERE RESEARCHDECEMBER2023
Kcytakcaways
–P-inu Ie vs yiulus Ieu ir tf lus. IB rflctlks l ulluu, Llu'a tyed inl uresl ra. urviroirner, l. Ihe s'aa:d belwall p irrel:is n 1ye- rrnert to nd l:is rernains ghtr parer, w th the st denale
rlme ree estate yle : s rose1 th= last 1 months, but spr2ec scve no rir al and resl ollt yleldssmaln : g 1ar th an usue
–mall spio Pc" Gon 't lsonc Y ols wroLsrvodJ clul g -lo Clee Fi'te'risl Clisis f 27 s. uu. UfcsF6. IGI S.Ja1f. I|I sI 9n(Rr. 9 dIcuIc os E 6.9r.as"a'e n'at : rc..at nnmt:itinr :t ir tial anma ard cas"t aw Irh
Cur'cnt prie' inight lgukJnvuuu r xstx (r thy)rurpe igons bu,t histury shaesItre pi,cn rcu chanigrc quirkly
–Incex-l kl Govarr : it l-oncs arc : b tar sonch ar forthe is-hee rels whor Eelir *a oslzls. tccaus: ceshI w giolis irlsgia lw u.types t''wus.'il. Tlht apa]ceteer er e:ds anl Ic va* irde I nke:l Cil: zielcs rasneer .ns; #'e 'tly osi ve throll. 6e, al-ar. 1 It is: nr.narre 'thar recer't yesrs
–ccrer32: bcr-l viclil2 12ve ti ge alcw t clcoor cerro60eneone0lh ual usleal' yiclds sinc fuse iusl olts, ke lcul stu.c.olle' i is+ 3lerrit. *slialive o Coveirerl to'rds he yie d: loF3R JK crrrrat rrndis hae r er #anva pime re ae ylalr.s
–.:urro' rcol cototc or: g "1igih: leck , afiw.rob bas.-:l o"Lhcw: oompul scr 3. ou. lhistel y slhieas hralt tl'c pesitie'i cantarge yu 'k , it: p'sssures oll teal eslale il ase I urg minte a* tes "art "allirg rat ertirn ot a ca: inig JK ntiatirrate ard ar errj rc, tfe rat rising: vcl
Tntrocluction
Thc u< has scoen a s.stalncd riso in both sroit-term nd loag-terminlorcsl iales ovor Lhe lasl Lwu yca's. This followod a dccaco ir whichthe B=nk ot England base rate was below 1%. borrowing cos.s ergtypically very low, and Gcve'n Tent bond yields wiere als ve'y low.supported hy a prngramme ef quan:itative ezsing.
Have spreads ellmore consistenthetween real estateyiclcls and thescther easures, anddo such comparisonssuggest thal a tighitersprcadl overnominalGovernment bondyielcls couldbc sustainedgoing lorwardl?
Cuer tha ssMe decace, a nde marin existed betwee rog astate yleldsand Govoinmmonl bod vields. Honce, whal mighl b Lle implicaLions [orU< real gstate pricing frcrl recent rises in Governrrlert anid corporstebcnd yields, ard hov: t=r do real stste yields have to rise to reflect thechanced financial environmeat?
Tig hter spreads betveern uk resl estare yie ds and nomina Gavernmentbend yiclce: havo boon observexd ir the past, but trosc migkt havolesullud fron diffurenl inveslol expoclaliuris abuul cash fluw growrlhor ditterences in the risk prerni'un required or real estate investment.
ea:ste vielc aqainst, index-linked nve'n ment lnnd yields3nd corpo*at boad vlclcls 3s alternatvos tc nominal Gowernmnt oor
