LPG期货周报：港口库存消化，到港量偏低，待看需求端变化提振

2023-12-17LPG期货周报本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。广发期货APP微信公众号作者：张晓珍联系人：欧楚晗联系方式：020-88818025张晓珍从业资格：F0288167投资咨询资格：Z0003135港 口 库 存 消 化 ， 到港量 偏 低 ， 待 看 需 求 端 变 化 提 振 主要观点本周策略LPGOPEC+减产政策pricein后，本周原油在美联储加息反复的预期下震荡波动。LPG基本面来看，本周到港量仍然偏低，港口库存现阶段逐步消化中。烷基化开工率再度走低，PDH开工率仍然低位运行，但PDH利润已逐步修复，后期开工率或有反弹。本周寒潮来临，各地降温对燃烧需求的释放有一定推动。总的来说，原油价格在宏观预期扰动下有小幅波动，但上方仍然承压。短期内寒潮对燃烧需求的释放有一定提振，后期关注PDH利润修复后开工率反弹是否会引发供应偏紧的担忧，对盘面价格产生影响。主力合约运行区间参考4500-5100，逢低可试多。主力合约运行区间参考4500-5100，逢低可试多。 目录行情回顾LPG相关价格及价差LPG供需情况010203 一、行情回顾 走势回顾供需暂未出现较大矛盾，盘面震荡调整。 华南现货情况山东现货情况醚后碳四现货情况华东现货情况数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心华南现货价格小幅上涨，山东、醚后碳四现货价格下跌0.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01华南现货价格20202021202220230.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01山东现货价格20202021202220230.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01华东现货价格20202021202220230.001000.002000.003000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01醚后碳四现货价格2020202120222023 LPG广州基差情况LPG山东基差情况醚后碳四基差LPG华东基差情况数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心各地区基差修复-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.002000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01广州基差2020202120222023-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01山东基差2020202120222023-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01醚后碳四基差2020202120222023-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001500.002000.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01华东基差2020202120222023 LPG01-02（单位：元/吨）LPG02-03（单位：元/吨）LPG03-04（单位：元/吨）LPG注册仓单数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心LPG月差情况0200040006000800010000120001400001-0203-0205-0207-0209-0211-02LPG注册仓单2020202120222023-250-200-150-100-5005010015020025030006-1007-1008-1009-1010-1011-1012-10lpg01-02价差PG2401-2402PG2301-2302PG2201-2202PG2101-2102-200-100010020030040050005-1106-1107-1108-1109-1110-1111-1112-11lpg02-03价差PG2402-2403PG2302-2303PG2202-2203PG2102-2103-800-600-400-200020040005-1006-1007-1008-1009-1010-1011-1012-10lpg03-04价差PG2403-2404PG2303-2304PG2203-2204PG2103-2104 CP M1FEI M1CP M1-M2FEI M1-M2数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心CP价格小幅上涨，CP和FEI月差走弱401402403404405406407408402023/6/132023/8/132023/10/132023/12/13FEI M1-40-200204060801001201/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1FEI(M1-M2)202120222023-60-40-200204060801001202022/7/192022/10/192023/1/192023/4/192023/7/192023/10/19CP(M1-M2)01002003004005006007002023/6/272023/7/272023/8/272023/9/272023/10/272023/11/27CP M1 PG-FEI FEI-CPMB-FEIMB-CP数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心PG仍然贴水FEI，MB-FEI和MB-CP走弱-2000.00-1500.00-1000.00-500.000.00500.001000.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1PG-FEI202120222023-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1FEI-CPFEI-CP M1 2 021FEI-CP M1 2 022FEI-CP M1 2 023-500-400-300-200-10001/42/43/44/45/46/47/48/49/410/411/412/4MB-FEI202120222023-350-300-250-200-150-100-5001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1MB-CP202120222023 FEI/BRENT MB/BRENTCP/BRENT数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心本周原油价格反弹，丙烷与原油比值回落56789101112131/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1FEI/BRENT2021202220233456789101/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1MB/BRENT2021202220230246810121/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1CP/BRENT20222023 二、LPG供需情况 美国原油产量（单位：千桶/天）美国汽油表观消费量（单位：千桶/天）美国商业库存（单位：百万桶）美国炼厂开工率（单位：%）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心美国原油产量位于高位，开工率有所回升600070008000900010000110001200013000140001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国原油产量20202021202220234000500060007000800090001000011000120001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国汽油表观消费量20202021202220233000003500004000004500005000005500006000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国商业原油库存2020202120222023百万桶百万桶百万桶505560657075808590951001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美国炼厂开工率2020202120222023% 美国丙烷丙烯净产量（单位：千桶/天）美国丙烷丙烯期末库存量（单位：千桶）美国丙烷丙烯供应天数（单位：天）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心丙烷丙烯产量高于同期水平，期末库存量稳定1000150020002500300001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01净产量:丙烷和丙烯:美国20202021202220239000011000013000015000017000019000021000001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01期末库存量:天然气厂液体/液化石油气:不含丙烷/丙烯:美国202020212022202302040608010012014016001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01供应天数:丙烷/丙烯:美国2020202120222023美国丙烷丙烯出口量（单位：千桶/天）200700120017002200270001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01出口量:丙烷和丙烯:美国2020202120222023 中东至远东运费（单位：美元/吨）美国运费（经巴拿马）（单位：美元/吨）美国运费（经好望角）（单位：美元/吨）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、Wind、彭博、广发期货发展研究中心运费高位回落0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00200.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01中东至远东运费20202021202220230.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01美国至远东运费（经好望角）20202021202220230.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.0001-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01美国至远东运费（经巴拿马）2020202120222023 日本液化气库存（单位：吨）日本液化气进口（单位：吨）日本液化气需求（单位：百万桶）日本液化气产量（单位：千吨）数据来源：本报告数据来源于隆众资讯、卓创资讯、Wind、玄德、广发期货发展研究中心日本液化气进口量和产量均有下滑800000100000012000001400000160000018000002000000220000024000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1日本液化气库存2020202120222023020000040000060000080000010000001200