2024 年展望 ： 基本面稳健 ， 感知不佳

Deutsche Bank Research's latest report suggests that equity markets remain focused on the macro outlook, with economists forecasting a sharp slowdown, even as personal consumption remains strong. Core inflation has fallen due to a decline in the unexplained component, driven by factors specific to the pandemic recovery. The 1970s inflation experience suggests that rates may not be cut unless recession occurs. Earnings growth has been solid, but perceptions remain poor, with valuations not looking high. This may change with the Q4 reporting, when year-on-year growth is expected to approach 10%. For 2024, the house economics view is for solid fundamentals and poor perceptions.