The paper "Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Median Participant" by Manuel González-Astudillo and Rakeen Tanvir examines the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) reaction function using a Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients. The authors estimate the reaction function for one to three years ahead, and find that the median participant's reaction function is hawkish in the long run, but becomes dovish in the short run. The authors suggest that this finding may be due to the FOMC's emphasis on inflation and the potential for a shift in monetary policy in response to changes in economic conditions.
