美联储监测：9月联邦公开市场委员会之前的北美：我们的货币预测

Federal Reserve Monitor| North America Michael T GapenChief US EconomistMichael.Gapen@morganstanley.com Ahead of the September FOMC:Our Monetary Forecasts Sam D CoffinEconomistSam.Coffin@morganstanley.com Martin W Tobias, CFAStrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 We participate in the NY Fed's Survey of Market Expectations,which collects expectations about monetary policy and theeconomy before each FOMC meeting. This note provides asnapshot of our responses to the survey. Diego AnzoateguiEconomistDiego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Heather BergerEconomistHeather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296 Arunima SinhaGlobal EconomistArunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. We participate in the NY Fed's Survey of Primary Dealers, which collects expectationsabout monetary policy and economic indicators in advance of each FOMC meeting.Responses to the survey are released publicly ahead of the meeting, and in this note weprovide a snapshot of our responses. A First Look at Our Expectations for the September FOMCStatement, SEP, and Press Conference FOMC policy statement We expect the FOMC lowers the fed funds rate by 25 bps. The FOMC Statement islikely to recognize that job growth has slowed and to point to downside risks toemployment. In the policy outlook, we expect a hint of an easing bias as the FOMCconsiders additional "reductions" rather than "adjustments" to the funds rate. The FOMC statement probably repeats that growth "moderated in the first half of theyear." The Fed's labor market assessment probably softens. In July, they characterizedlabor market conditions as solid and the unemployment rate low. In the Septemberstatement, we expect they instead write that "job growth has slowed" while stillacknowledging low unemployment. On inflation, the FOMC probably again says that inflation "remains somewhat elevated"and then explains the new pressures with language to the effect that "tariffs have begunto push up prices in some categories of goods." On the economic outlook, we expect the statement repeats that the Committee sees risksto both sides of its mandate and that uncertainty remains elevated. But after the last twoweak employment reports, we expect new language that "downside risks to employmenthave risen". The new labor-market concern justifies the rate cut. We expect policy guidance to suggest a new easing bias as the FOMC considers "theextent and timing of additional reductions" to the policy rate. We remain uncertain about the composition of the Committee at the upcoming meeting:whether Fed Governor Cook attends, and whether the Senate approves Stephen Miran'snomination to the Board before this meeting. If Miran does attend, we expect he dissentsin favor of a faster start to easing with a 50 bp cut to the funds rate. Exhibit 1:Expected changes in the FOMC statement (September versus July) Federal Reserve Board, Morgan Stanley Research Summary of Economic Projections We expect policy projections—the dot plot—to maintain two 25 bp rate cuts this year. Toget to three cuts would require about eight FOMC members shifting their expectations.However, for 2026 we expect the dots to show 50 bps in rate cuts instead of 25 bps: onlyone dot needs to move lower to get the median to decline. We do not expect significant change to the growth outlook. The unemployment rate projections probably increase slightly this year and next, giventhe recent employment data and the rationale for a rate cut. And we expect the price forecasts delay tariff effects slightly, subtracting a tenth fromthis year's core inflation and adding a tenth to next year's. Press conference Chair Powell's tone shifted between the July FOMC and Jackson Hole. The Julyemployment report raised concern: "while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is acurious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of anddemand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employmentare rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly…." The employment reportsince then will not have lessened his concerns. We expect similar language aboutemployment risks in the press conference. He also is likely to recognize tension in the Fed's inflation goal: that inflation remainsabove target and that tariffs threaten a one-time shift upward in the price level. Morepersistent price pressures could follow, but at Jackson Hole, he downplayed thepossibility: "Given that the