聚烯烃日报：油价大幅下跌，聚烯烃偏强震荡

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 受原油需求减弱影响，国际油价下跌，成本端支撑大幅走弱。聚烯烃盘面偏强震荡，现货价格微涨。开工率仍处于低位，目前多套检修装置开车重启，开工负荷企稳回升，宁波金发新增40PP装置投产，新增产能压力释放，聚烯烃供应压力仍存。塑料需求季节性转弱，需求疲软态势未改变。社会整体库存偏承压，其中上游库存小幅累库，中游贸易商环节库存偏高。聚烯烃供强需弱格局，驱动较弱，建议逢高做空。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存64.5万吨，较上一日去库2万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在+0元/吨，PP华东基差在-80元/吨，基差维持。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油价格偏弱震荡，油制聚烯烃生产利润维持亏损。丙烷偏弱震荡，PDH制PP生产利润亏损较深，开工维持低位。 连云港石化二期40HDPE装置停车，茂名石化11LDPE装置、巨正源120PP装置开车重启，前期多套装置亏损性检修，聚烯烃开工率大幅下跌，目前开工负荷企稳回升，宁波金发新增40PP装置投产，聚烯烃供应压力仍存。 进出口方面，PE进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口即将打开。 ■策略 （1）单边：供强需弱格局，驱动较弱，建议逢高做空。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................................