聚烯烃日报：多套装置重启，聚烯烃开工提升

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 近日多套装置开车重启，聚烯烃开工率与上一工作日相比大幅提升，开工负荷回归至中等水平，聚烯烃盘面偏强震荡。国际油价延续弱势，聚烯烃油制成本亏损较深，成本端支撑仍存。丙烷价格持续走强，PDH制PP亏损较深，已达下半年来最大亏损。PE下游农膜开工接近最高点，PE刚需较强，PP下游塑编利润和开工均走弱。PE进口窗口打开，PP进口利润走高，接近盈亏平衡线。建议暂观望。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存66.5万吨，相比前一工作日累库3.5万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在-30元/吨，PP华东基差在-50元/吨，基差变化不大。 生产利润及国内开工方面，国际原油延续弱势，聚烯烃油制成本亏损较深，成本支撑仍存。丙烷持续走强，PDH制PP生产利润亏损已至下半年最高。 检修装置陆续回归重启，开工负荷已至中等水平。近日多套装置开车重启，包括燕山石化8HDPE装置、中天合创35 PP装置、上海石化20 PP装置、镇海炼化30 PP装置、神华宁煤30 PP装置等。 进出口方面，PE进口窗口打开，PP进口利润走高，接近盈亏平衡线。 ■策略 （1）单边：暂观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 宏观政策力度，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................