钢铁行业周报：去库存进度加速，市场偏稳运行

主要观点： 报告日期：2023-10-22 ⚫钢材市场：终端需求回升，去库存加速、供应端减量，市场稳定运行。 成本端：成本端目前稳定运行，原料价格坚挺，钢企生产成本亏损不断扩大，伴随利润持续缩窄，钢厂减产预期仍存。 供应端：本周钢厂去库存进度加速，产量增速较弱，钢厂停限产增加，供应端有小幅减量。 高频数据： 1）钢材价格：Myspic综合钢价指数+0.11%，其中长材、扁平板分别+0.33%、-0.16%。螺纹钢价格为3610.00元/吨，环比-0.28%；热轧板卷价格3810.00元/吨，环比+0.26%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为839元/吨，环比-0.36%；焦炭价格为2316.5元/吨，环比-1.51%；焦煤价格为1702元/吨，环比-1.7%。 执业证书号：S0010121070002邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为83.51 (+0.06%)/309.37（-2.39%) /104.32（-3.72%）/148.04（-5.51%）/256.26（+1.37%）万吨。开工率：高炉开工率82.34%，环比+0.14pct；电炉开工率61.54%，环比+1.92pct；高炉产能利用率90.62%，环比-1.31pct；电炉产能利用率54.18 %，环比+0.51pct。库存：总社库1075.33万吨，环比-3.55 %；总厂库462.36万吨，环比-5.35%；螺纹社库457.66万吨，环比-5.35%；螺纹厂库191.56万吨，环比-8.45%。 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏叠加碳达峰、碳中和背景，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块。国防军工、航空航天产业高景气度叠加广阔的国产替代空间，高温合金、特种不锈钢、超高强度钢等产品占据绝对优势地位，建议关注产品结构加速优化的华菱钢铁；不锈钢棒线材及云母提锂龙头永兴材料；冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性龙头标的甬金股份。 1.强需求预期尚未落地，静待节后库存去化2023-10-142.钢材需求偏弱，关注节后去库进度2023-10-083.钢铁去库存持续，供需逐步改善2023-09-25 ⚫风险提示 原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1.1本周钢铁板块走势...............................................................................................................................................................41.2各钢铁板块走势...................................................................................................................................................................4 2.1个股周涨跌幅.......................................................................................................................................................................52.2公司公告...............................................................................................................................................................................5 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨幅（%）...................................................................................................................................................4图表2本周钢铁子板块涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................................................................4图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................5图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................5图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................5图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）.......................................................................................................................................................6图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.................................................................................................................................................6图表8板材价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................................................................6图表9铁矿石及两焦合约价（元/吨）........................................................................................................................................7图表10铁矿石期现价格（元/吨）..............................................................................................................................................7图表11焦炭期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表12焦煤期现价格（元/吨）...................................................................................................................................................7图表13炼焦煤库存：国内样本钢厂（110家）（万吨）............................................................................................................7图表14炼焦煤平均可用天数：国内样本钢厂(247家)（天）...................................................................................................7图表15焦炭库存：国内247家钢厂（万吨）............................................................................................................................8图表16港口焦炭库存（万吨）....................................................................................................................................................8图表17废钢价格（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................................................8图表18钢厂废钢库存（万吨）....................................................................................................................................................8图表19各品种钢材钢厂库存监控................................................................................................................................................8图表20钢材社会库存：合计（万吨）........................................................................................................................................9图表21钢材社会库存：分类（万吨）.....................................................