铜锌周报：海外风险偏好骤降，有色承压

铜锌周报 有色金属 海外风险偏好骤降，有色承压 姓名：龙奥明宝城期货投资咨询部从业资格证号：F3035632投资咨询证号：Z0014648电话：0571-87006873邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 核心观点 铜：国内产业支撑较强 节后一周沪铜11合约由67000一线下跌至66000一线。9月下旬美联储议息会议后海外风险偏好骤降，美元持续强势，铜价本身已处于下跌趋势之中。节后巴以冲突爆发，市场风险偏好持续下降，这很大程度上使铜价承压。产业上，矿端仍维持宽松状态，精铜月产超100万吨；铜价大幅下跌后下游积极补库，精铜杆开工率节后持续上升；电解铜社库低位持续累库。在国内宏观利好政策推动叠加金九银十旺季，产业支撑较强。海外宏观主导铜价偏弱运行，伦铜在前期低点有技术支撑，且美元指数高位回落，有利于铜价反弹。预计铜价将在66000-68000区间震荡。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 锌：下游需求走弱 节后一周沪锌11合约由21600一线下挫至21100一线。节后沪锌大幅下跌一方面是由于海外风险偏好骤降，另一方面由于锌价本身处于高位，多头止盈意愿较强。产业上，上游锌矿宽松，锌锭产量高位给予锌价压力；下游镀锌钢厂产量节后仍维持高位；镀锌板厂库震荡，社库持续上升，这一定程度上说明了节后镀锌下游需求开始走弱。技术上，短期预计在21000有技术支撑。锌价9月下旬开始上行表现乏力，在海外宏观利空，国内需求走弱的情况下可反弹做空。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 正文目录 铜市场概述....................................................................5锌市场概述....................................................................51宏观因素....................................................................62铜..........................................................................72.1市场回顾...............................................................72.2铜精矿供应维持宽松.....................................................82.3电解铜供应高位.........................................................92.4电解铜去库放缓........................................................103锌.........................................................................113.1行情回顾..............................................................113.2锌矿维持宽松..........................................................123.3精炼锌产量高位........................................................133.4内外库存分化..........................................................143.5镀锌产量维持高位......................................................144结论.......................................................................16 图表目录 图1铜周度数据一览..................................................................................................................................................5图2锌周度数据一览..................................................................................................................................................5图3美债走势................................................................................................................................................................6图4美元走势................................................................................................................................................................6图5中美欧制造业PMI..............................................................................................................................................6图6铜期价走势...........................................................................................................................................................7图7铜沪伦比值...........................................................................................................................................................7图8伦铜升贴水...........................................................................................................................................................7图9 1#电解铜升贴水季节性....................................................................................................................................7图10 1#电解铜基差....................................................................................................................................................7图11铜月差..................................................................................................................................................................7图12 ICSG铜精矿全球产量.....................................................................................................................................8图13铜砂矿及精矿进口...........................................................................................................................................8图14铜精矿港口库存................................................................................................................................................8图15铜精矿TC加工费.............................................................................................................................................8图16精炼铜供需平衡................................................................................................................................................9图17电解铜产量.........................................................................................................................................................9图18电解铜净进口....................................................................................................................................................9图19国内电解铜库存..............................................................................................................................................10图20国内显性库存（Mysteel社库+保税区）...............................................................................................10图21全球交易所库存（SHFE+LME+COMEX+保税区）......