0医疗服务板块2023中报总结：眼科表现亮眼，偏刚性诊疗复苏强劲2023年10月16日证券研究报告|行业中期策略证券分析师姓名：陈铁林资格编号：S0120521080001邮箱：chentl＠tebon.com.cn 1请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。0102032023H1诊疗复苏明显医疗服务板块：眼科表现亮眼风险提示目录CONTENTS oXpWoX9Z8ZcVfWtW8V6M9R6MmOpPmOmPiNqRpPkPrQsNaQrRuNxNqMtRwMqRzQ2请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。012023H1诊疗复苏明显 3请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。100001500020000250003000035000400002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-022023-04中国:总诊疗人次数:医院:当月值（万人）近三年我国诊疗情况概览疫情期间诊疗受压制-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2023M12023M22023M32023Q1诊疗人次增速：医院诊疗人次增速：民营医院诊疗人次增速：公立医院公立医院诊疗人次增速波动大23Q1民营恢复明显-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%诊疗人次增速:公立医院诊疗人次增速:民营医院85.0%96.7%85.9%57.6%79.9%90.7%76.0%56.6%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%医院:累计值医院:三级:累计值医院:二级:累计值医院:一级:累计值2019-03-312020-03-312021-03-312022-03-312023-03-31三级医院病床使用率恢复显著资料来源：wind，iFind，德邦研究所 4请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-05全国医保基金：当年累计收入增速全国医保基金：当年累计支出增速3,562 3,389 3,689 4,699 6,266 -10%0%10%20%30%40% - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,00020182019202020212022医保基金历年结余（亿元）YOY（%）近三年我国诊疗情况概览23H1诊疗复苏强劲疫情期间医保基金结余0.001,000,000.002,000,000.003,000,000.004,000,000.005,000,000.006,000,000.007,000,000.00急诊人次:医院:天津:当月值月人次-3.4%18.7%27.7%9.6%21.0%9.6%3.4%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2023M12023M22023M32023M42023M52023M62023M7急诊人次增速：医院：天津：当月值资料来源：wind，iFind，国家医保局，德邦研究所 5请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。02医疗服务板块：眼科表现亮眼 6请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。医疗服务板块2023表现-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023/01/032023/02/032023/03/032023/04/032023/05/032023/06/032023/07/032023/08/032023/09/03医药生物医院图：2023年医药生物及医院指数累计涨跌幅63 0501001502002502015/09/112015/11/112016/01/112016/03/112016/05/112016/07/112016/09/112016/11/112017/01/112017/03/112017/05/112017/07/112017/09/112017/11/112018/01/112018/03/112018/05/112018/07/112018/09/112018/11/112019/01/112019/03/112019/05/112019/07/112019/09/112019/11/112020/01/112020/03/112020/05/112020/07/112020/09/112020/11/112021/01/112021/03/112021/05/112021/07/112021/09/112021/11/112022/01/112022/03/112022/05/112022/07/112022/09/112022/11/112023/01/112023/03/112023/05/112023/07/112023/09/11医药生物(申万)医院(申万)图：15年至今医药生物及医院指数估值（PE，TTM，剔除负值）2023年初医疗服务走强：年初诊疗复苏强劲，预期全年诊疗复苏；4月之后开始跑输医药生物指数：主要系积压需求快速释放后，复苏力度不及预期；消费走弱，屈光、视光、正畸等消费医疗受影响；板块高估值。资料来源：wind，德邦研究所 7请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。-50%0%50%100%150%050100150营业收入（亿元）营业收入YOY医疗服务标的2023H1表现营业收入增速归母净利润增速营业收入增速归母净利润增速2023H120222023H120222023H120222023H12022光正眼科60.10%-26.50%108%-312%国际医学106.90%-7.20%63%-43%普瑞眼科54.90%0.90%358%-78%美年健康50.80%-6.80%102%-931%朝聚眼科32.80%-0.80%45%16%固生堂40.40%18.30%67%136%何氏眼科32.70%-0.70%87%-62%盈康生命25.90%6.10%49%-64%爱尔眼科26.40%7.40%33%9%创新医疗20.80%-0.30%93%29%华厦眼科26.30%5.50%50%13%三博脑科20.20%-6.10%36%-18%希玛眼科7.20%56.60%101%-200%锦欣生殖17.20%28.40%18%-64%通策医疗3.40%-2.20%3%-22%海吉亚医疗15.00%38.30%49%8%选取16家民营医院连锁机构：1）23H1收入303亿，同比增长32%、归母34.2亿，同比增长182.6%；2）23Q1收入118.3亿，同比增长33.1%，归母11.3亿，同比增长1291.2%；3）23Q2收入127.1亿，同比增长37.4%，归母14.6亿，同比增长169.6%。Q2收入环比增速7.4%、利润增速28.7%。0%20%40%60%80%0501001502002502015201620172018201920202021202223H1收入（亿元）收入YOY-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0510152025302015201620172018201920202021202223H1归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润YOY眼科：1）23H1收入164.8亿，同比增长28.5%、归母25.7亿，同比增长53%。表：医疗服务板块相关标的23H1表现图：医疗服务板块23H1表现图：眼科板块历年收入端表现图：眼科板块历年利润端表现资料来源：wind，各公司公告，德邦研究所 8请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。医疗服务各标的半年度表现一览19H119H220H120H221H121H222H122H223H1爱尔眼科营收YOY25.6%23.9%-12.3%47.8%76.5%-1.2%10.3%4.6%26.4%归母YOY36.5%36.8%-2.7%53.2%65.0%15.3%15.7%2.1%32.6%华厦眼科营收YOY14.5%2.4%--7.0%4.1%26.3%归母YOY32.6%53.6%--8.4%16.3%50.1%普瑞眼科营收YOY17.3%14.2%--5.1%-3.2%54.9%归母YOY56.6%122.1%---21.5%-207.5%358.1%何氏眼科营收YOY21.5%--36.9%-0.3%0.8%-2.1%32.7%归母YOY43.7%--77.3%-59.1%-29.1%-131.4%87.4%通策医疗营收YOY23.6%21.7%-12.9%28.9%78.6%8.4%0.1%-4.3%3.4%归母YOY54.1%29.4%-30.2%36.2%141.9%1.3%-15.7%-28.2%3.0%美年健康营收YOY4.5%-1.8%-50.2%22.9%86.1%-3.7%-13.5%-2.9%50.8%归母YOY-90.1%-235.7%-4746.6%251.3%45.3%-63.2%-55.8%-72.9%101.5%国际医学营收YOY-72.5%27.8%44.3%76.6%104.1%67.0%-18.2%1.7%106.9%归母YOY-99.8%-1561.4%-6946.9%195.2%-4.6%-218.7%-65.5%25.7%62.7%三博脑科营收YOY7.4%--26.5%5.9%-6.1%-6.1%20.2%归母YOY-25.5%--147.3%-32.3%-33.4%8.5%36.3%海吉亚营收YOY22.7%34.9%47.5%79.6%63.7%20.8%15.3%净利润YOY-84.6%522.2%9800.0%44.6%13.1%4.1%49.1%锦欣生殖营收YOY91.6%69.0%-22.5%-4.5%40.3%19.6%32.8%24.4%17.3%净利润YOY153.7%140.0%-31.8%-43.3%34.5%35.3%21.8%-137.5%17.9%资料来源：wind，各公司公告，德邦研究所 9请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。医疗服务各标的分季度表现一览19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2爱尔眼科营收YOY28.5%23.2%27.2%19.8%-26.9%0.7%47.6%48.2%113.9%52.1%-3.5%1.7%18.7%2.7%16.4%-10.2%20.4%32.8%归母YOY37.8%35.6%38.9%29.7%-73.4%50.5%62.3%20.1%509.9%5.9%2.0%79.9%26.2%7.7%20.1%-47.7%27.9%36.8%华厦眼科营收YOY9.5%20.4%-4.1%15.8%-8.2%15.1%38.1%归母YOY9.6%38.7%-1.9%36.1%-3.5%34.0%64.6%普瑞眼科营收YOY0.8%20.7%-8.2%6.3%-16.9%38.7%72.8%归母YOY-485.1%28.8%-61.7%-19.4%200.4%334.8%420.4%何氏眼科营收YOY14.9%-11.0%8.3%-15.6%2