铅月报：挤仓担忧缓解 铅价震荡重心下移

挤仓担忧缓解 铅价震荡重心下移 核心观点及策略 宏观面看，美国经济及就业韧性强，年内仍有加息预期，美元维持强劲。国内政策持续释放，经济有望延续回升。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 基本面看，内外铅矿供应紧张格局不改，加工费低位下行。原生铅炼厂复产，供应趋增，但原料紧张及利润不佳，限制生产积极性，恢复量有限。再生铅方面，新增投产及炼厂复产，供应增加，同时加剧了原料废旧电瓶的竞争，价格稳步上沿，成本支撑抬升。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端来看，原料高价向下游传导不畅，铅蓄电池表现旺季不旺，企业开工偏稳，减产预期未兑现。后期看，电动自行车消费旺季临近尾声，但汽车启动电池仍有期待，储能电池也有一定增长，消费存韧性。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，内外宏观分化，美元偏强运行压制铅价。沪铅加权持仓逐步回落，挤仓风险有所降温，铅价走势或重回基本面。目前供应缓慢回升，需求存仍性，供增需稳下库存高位运行，压制铅价，但原料铅矿及废旧电瓶偏紧格局难改托底铅价。伴随着流动性风险缓解,预10月沪铅主力震荡重心下移至16000-17000元/吨。 策略建议：逢高沽空风险因素：挤仓风险再起，需求远低于预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1海外矿山干扰事件较多，全球铅矿维持紧张.................................42.1.2原料紧张局面难改，加工费低位下行......................................52.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................62.2.1全球精炼铅供应逐步回升，海外增量将逐步体现............................62.2.2炼厂复产电解铅产量小增，铅锭出口缓解淡季累库压力......................72.2.3原料价格易涨难跌，再生铅产量缓慢增加..................................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池消费旺季不旺.................................................112.3.2 .1人民币贬值利多，铅蓄电池出口改善...................................122.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性，稳中趋增...........................................122.4内外库存均呈现增势......................................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2全球铅矿月度产量........................................................................................................5图表3国内铅矿产量................................................................................................................5图表4铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表5铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表6银矿砂进口情况............................................................................................................6图表7内外铅矿月度加工费.....................................................................................................6图表8全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表9电解铅产量情况............................................................................................................8图表10原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表11精炼铅出口情况..........................................................................................................8图表12精炼铅出口盈亏情况..................................................................................................8图表13 2022-2023年部分原生铅炼厂电解铅产能变动情况（万吨）.................................8图表14再生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格延续回落................................................................................................10图表17再生铅企业利润情况.................................................................................................10图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................11图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................11图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................11图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................11图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................12图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................12图表24汽车及新能源汽车产量情况....................................................................................13图表25两轮电动车销量情况................................................................................................13图表26汽车及新能源汽车产量情况....................................................................................13图表27移动通信基站产量情况............................................................................................13图表28 LME库存先跌后涨...................................................................................................14图表29上期所库存呈现增势................................................................................................14图表30交易所仓单低位回升................................................................................................14图表31基差情况...................