聚烯烃日报：成交一般，期现弱势整理

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 建议观望。聚烯烃弱势整理，基差持续小幅走强，下游需求改善有限，现货市场成交情况维持清淡。丙烷连续上涨，PDH制PP生产利润已至亏损，原料成本强势引发对PDH装置亏损性检修的担忧。近日受多套大型装置停车检修影响，总开工率有所降低。石化库存去库，上游库存维持低位。临近传统需求旺季，PE下游农膜持续季节性恢复，PP下游BOPP开工与利润均有小幅上升。PE进口盈亏跌破盈亏平衡线。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存62.5万吨，较上上一日减少6.5万吨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差在+30元/吨，PP华东基差在-60元/吨，基差小幅走强。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油制聚烯烃的生产利润维持亏损，PDH制PP生产利润亏损加剧。 受近期万华35万吨PE、浙江石化45万吨PP等大型装置检修影响，聚烯烃开工率降低，其余装置持续季节性开工重启。聚烯烃非标品与标品价差走高。 进出口方面，PE进口盈亏跌破盈亏平衡线，PP进口窗口持续关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.......................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨..........................