2023四季度商品指数展望：半卷红旗临易水

2023 I 20239 20111290 Z0000505 F03103098 F03118352 OPEC+ 2023 I 20239 i 1 .......................................................................................................................... 1 2 .................................................................................................... 2 3 ................................................................................ 16 4 ....................................................................................... 22 5 ................................................................................... 29 2023 I 20239 ii 2.1.11 .............................................................................................. 2 2.1.12 .............................................................................................. 3 2.1.1 ................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 ..................................................................... 6 2.2.3 ............................................................................... 7 2.2.4 ....................................................................................... 7 2.2.5 ............................................................................ 8 2.2.6 ................................................................................... 8 2.2.7 ............................. 9 2.2.8 ................................................................................. 10 2.2.9 ............................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 ............................................................................. 12 2.3.1 ............................................................... 12 2.3.2 .......................................................................... 13 2.3.2 ............................................................... 13 2.3.3 ............................................................................................ 14 2.3.4 ................................................................................. 14 3.1.1M1PPI ........................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 ................................................................................................... 18 3.2.1PMI ........................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 ............................................................................. 20 3.2.3 .............................................................................................................. 21 4.1 ................................................................................ 22 4.1 .................................................................. 22 2023 I 20239 iii 4.2 ...................................................................................................... 23 4.3 ...................................................................................................... 24 4.4 ...................................................................................................... 25 4.5 .................................................................................................. 26 4.6 ...................................................................................................... 27 2023 I 20239 1 1 200461202393020 2061 2004GDP 2023 I 20239 2 2 2.1 202361,,, 2.1.11 NHCI NHII NHECI NHMI NHAI NHPMI NHEI NHPCI 2.33% 4.22% 39.98% 4.07% 4.49% 9.50% 6.84% 5.38% 60.02% 2.00% 3.54% 13.12% 8.86% 2.58% 7.78% 7.07% 8.11% 16.83% 2.28% 8.89% 2.00% 3.37% 12.22% 2.00% 3.30% 2.00% 2.43% 4.41% 11.61% 8.77% 10.03% 20.85% 6.87% 7.53% 12.82% 26.28% 4.08% 16.01% 3.79% 11.30% 3.01% 3.57% 6.38% 5.66% 6.90% 13.93% 2023 I 20239 3 2.1.11 NHCI NHII NHECI NHMI NHAI NHPMI NHEI NHPCI 2.24% 6.87% 4.40% 13.82% 4.20% 8.79% 3.08% 5.42% 21.18% 9.30% 10.88% 22.38% 4.16% 3.35% 4.11% 7.49% 2.67% 3.28% 5.98% 14.47% 15.75% 25.00% 53.32% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.75% 2.19% 3.80% 5.82% 3.81% PTA 3.75% 4.45% 7.95% 29.24% 2.28% 4.06% 15.35% 3.95% 12.13% 2.45% 2.92% 5.95% Source: Nanhua Research 2.1.12 NHCCI NHNFI NHFI NHFMI NHBMI NHOOI NHAECI NHCIMi 5.20% 2023 I 20239 4 2.1.12 NHCCI NHNFI NHFI NHFMI NHBMI NHOOI NHAECI NHCIMi 19.26% 13.87% 29.53% 17.34% 13.19% 31.80% 8.28% 4.22% 33.53% 6.60% 8.90% 11.83% 31.74% 54.03% 29.19% 22.80% 37.51% 21.56% 12.30% 17.17% 26.94% 11.63% 21.22% 3.35%