2023年澳大利亚大型零售物业LFR报告英文版

CBREIntelligent InvestmentLarge Format RetailAustraliaREPORTInsightsCERERESEARCHMAY 2C23 IiJ.ll . I .sil I. d y :6,. Key themesO1High barriers to entry & rnarket size.02Population is a key driver to sales & income growth.C3 Healthy occupier sales growth.04Limited supply pipeline.05Shifting buyer landscape to institutions.06Outlook.UJK_ R_SLAKCI&- SC : CEFC, IF- 01High Barriers toEntry & Market Size I.ll y. I .sl'.d y b,. ITTigh harrier's to entiyIri oinparisori to othe g obel nuikcts, thc Australia" rc-a'l crivironiricrit cnjoys a lcvel ct 'prctectionJnl ke many athr mgrkets. The ccst cf la nd, pxaitlcularly In metropolitar aress o major tles I omeof che mcst =xFensive globallu, wher= residtial _sage is often the highest and most valuable cpticnThis r:uplerl vith a highly fegulntcc ancl oft(:n tracterl planning regim) and coet of (onst rur:tinr(pa ticular y st this point in tlhe cycle) lras e li nicing effect on te size of the retai , incluc ing the LargeFor inat Rctail (LFR) r'aikot.As a rasu.t, nes encrants Into tre LrR market "ace algrifica nt barrlers ta entry. vhi le eatalslishedowners with existing in'astructure and experience have a dist nct advantag=. This is exemplified bythe fact thalt Aushalia has c..9 stp n' olal ulail pu capila ccmpancil t c.2.1 sqm in he: 1is anrlc.1.5 3q 1n Canada (as at December 2022),Muikcl SizcThere are cul'rent h 31g LFR centres In ^ustralla, wlt h a totsl ma rket slze of spproximatelv ,345,coCsq m cf floorspace. The average size of an LFR centre is arcu nd 10.77 sqn . Desp te this, A.List ra lie'solai seclcr is highly rol lo luzl, with sl rit:l pc oclions in plocu to safufuard chentstic rt:lailgrs andllimit foreig n cor1ptiticn. Australia's 10 largest LHR asssts represent 1.0c2,108 sqm or c.19.5% of tl1etctal LFR tkoorspace CFY23? Hoover. uri ike othcr rotail assss. LFR assets can be rour[xswd forInd..strlal use. een with Goodma ns 5A2(m sxuls tlon of th Alex nlrig 1lomemaker Cntre. Ifth s trend pers sts i: could continue to naga LFR s- pply, chus making thase assets more scarce.This underlying fgc.or, (ontbinxd with Auslilia's iob>ust onl ropilly growing concny, villstrengthen the position of LI cvners and tenents ellke.20%The vacaricy rats to1 LFR ssats in Austral'a declesed frcin 5.2% iri 2021/22 to a 1ecc'd lcw ot 3.% in2n2z2a. Thls; tightening vararey ref eets: a growing cmand for ths sets, aitlculsrly lven thelimited nesv floorspace being ac ded to the market. As a rBsul, rental rates for these asssts reC re -2u LFR luuisFuw? A.olu u w we.?ulixpc .d lo ccnlinue .o rst; olon!l wilh thuit ossul volues. This Irexd is i~dicalive ol Lhc slrong13 nf a.s-* a's armes- Il: *ats.market condicions for LI k in Australia.. /.ch L 1 . Ra:1 + y.MUJK_ R_SLAKCI*- SC CERC, IT.-2. 02Population is a Key Driverto Sales & Income Growth I.ll g t il'!I 'g: Fr: Fl-lBright future for IL.FR with promising population growthThe [aause in overstas nigration in 202' res ti"g troi CCvIC: hed sseri thenatlen's picpulsticn groath flatline at a.1, versus the leg-term average of 2y.156#10] Ir15|ndld z] .1smy :, inf.i_(2011 tc 2020). However, he reopaning cf borders i- November 2021 and keygicnuth.Th likeby flaw on effeet of strong pcoulatlont:hangus o tre skilloul migration polic:y lcok sel lo so a relur~ to pg-CoviDowspop_letion grcwtl1 levs s in I-Y2s o* c.b21,9o0 ac ditionel p2cale arcund a year500,0C0n'ncrasec deriard tor hcusehold goods.2.5%eheacl of carl'sr orecasts. The Federa Gcverrnent ariricu ncsd a 22% i"creass intlhe permanelit migration cap for Fyz3 te: 1se,oco overcome current skillsshcrtages. Th= ncst in-dera'd jcbs (vacant) of 2022 incl. de reg ister=d nurses,400,000scfvure aad apr picgrarmers and aful and dlisabled curors.2.0 *Australia has the 2 =l hig hest prc,acted popu ation grovth retes cf tlie dlevelcasd1on.ojenuugwoild in the coning dscade (+15.3%/4.43 nillicri peorake betwee" 2023 and 2033).Thls; wll rlrve slg * ficant demsnrl fe heuslng ard s.. hsequently, s strnng tallwlnd700.001.5%Populaticntc LFR sales. Pcpulaticn grovth in Australia is prc;ected to b= 2% i- the FY23tu frcm +1.1% in tho prior voor3. oncl +17% in FY24 CF:deral Buugel 2C23-243.100,000Ihe li kely flow on e"ect cf st "ong populaclon growth, especlally on austral i's1.0%gronthEastein Sea soaid, will see iricrga:ed deilarid tor LFR gocds. s corisinersKatase:ilre: Iifstyle and hcuschold produata..0.5%108,00)-200.0C00.C%As45 bnN=tural IncreaseNet overseas migration (non-=s)Ax lim t, n f, n niputin t aclenalNe:l cvutone nigration (FS)Annudl guwth (RHS) -".e..Je*.co e.. 4. Crr uy .b? s-..eno""": ('s"?"wunir i. tlu Ewsl" Scubus"] vnn -; * ghnr rep: .a'ini shs *?.UJK_ R_SLAKCI*- SC CERC, IF.-2 I.ll y I .sl'I 'ge Fr: RtlGlobal comparisonAustralia has secured the 2'd-iglr: 7 Hnat. a*infnyast an 1.a g nwch n'X:7 3?-0.1%fastest growing population ofEUROPEthedeveloped world1.0%0010.1%GERMANYCANADAUK0.5% 0.9%0.5%FRANCE-0.5%APACWORLDUSAJAPAN1.4%MIDDLEEAST2%AUSTRALIADec-22Jun-23Dec-23Dac-24Jun-25GOP growth7!1<:1.1:111