2023年中国重型卡车行业未来之路英文版

Automotive & Assembly PracticeChina’s heavy-duty truck industry: The road aheadPremiumization, electrification, autonomous driving, and a value pool shift to solutions and services will shape the future of heavy-duty trucks in China.August 2023© sinology/Getty ImagesThis article is a collaborative effort by Saral Chauhan, Thomas (Yinliang) Fang, Peng Jiang, Alexander Will, Tony (Guansong) Zhou, and Allen (Xiaolei) Zhuang, representing views from McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice. Over the past decade, China has experienced an infrastructure boom and mushrooming demand for road transportation, leading to rapid growth of the heavy-duty-truck (HDT) market. Sales of HDTs in China grew from 600,000 vehicles in 2015 to a peak of 1.6 million in 2020. Then, in 2022, the HDT market in China went into a slump; a regional economic slowdown, COVID-19 lockdowns, and the fact that many customers prepurchased HDTs in 2020 and 2021 resulted in a sales volume of only 700,000 vehicles in 2022 (Exhibit 1).1This slump is unlikely to be permanent. Given the size and resilience of the country’s economy, we expect the Chinese HDT industry to rebound and retain a significant and stable commercial base. 1 IHS Markit data on medium and heavy commercial-vehicle industry sales in China, 2010–22, accessed March 28, 2023.2 Ibid.That said, the rapid development of the past decade will be difficult to replicate. As of 2022, the top five participants in China’s HDT market held more than 80 percent of the market—and the industry is becoming more concentrated.2 As demand normalizes after the boom, the established leaders will likely maintain their positions at the top of the market, but competitors from other geographies and adjacent sectors—including, for example, OEMs that formerly specialized in electric passenger vehicles—are likely to continue to jostle for position. Another example is that some global OEMs are already investing in the market, localizing their manufacturing by forming or acquiring Chinese companies to reduce costs and meet specific needs of local customers. Exhibit 1201020132015201620172018201920202021202220251.00.80.60.71.11.11.21.61.40.71.0Short-term volatilityRapid growthShort-term volatilityA large yet saturated market–11% p.a.–25% p.a.–36% p.a.Web <2023><China Heavy Duty Trucking>Exhibit <1> of <6>Estimated heavy-duty-truck sales in China, million units1Per annum.Source: IHS MarkitHeavy-duty-truck sales in China peaked in 2020. McKinsey & Company2China’s heavy-duty truck industry: The road ahead Four trends that will shape the next era for Chinese heavy-duty trucksTo support manufacturers’ quest for short-term sales and long-term growth, we have identified four of the most notable trends that will likely shape the Chinese HDT industry in 2030 and beyond: premiumization (the move toward subpremium and premium HDTs), electrification, autonomous driving, and a value pool shift to solutions and services. Players who capture the opportunities afforded by these trends could gain momentum and expand their profit pools, even in the face of increasing competition.PremiumizationAs customer mixes and demand continue to evolve, market shifts are spurring higher adoption of subpremium and premium HDTs. This will require manufacturers to explore greater reliability, comfort, and intelligence in their offerings.We project that the market share of HDTs priced at more than $60,000 will reach 30 percent by 2030, up from 10 percent in 2020 (Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2Web <2023><China Heavy Duty Trucking>Exhibit <2> of <6>Heavy-duty-truck sales volume by price range, %Source: IHS Markit data on medium and heavy commercial-vehicle industry sales in China, 2020, accessed March 28, 2023We project that higher-budget trucks will gain a larger share of sales in 2030.McKinsey & Company202020303020605092515100%Premium (> $100,000)Subpremium ($60,000–$100,000) Budget ($40,000–$60,000) Low end (< $40,000)3China’s heavy-duty truck industry: The road ahead Other than economic growth (which is likely to boost demand), several factors suggest HDT customers are increasingly interested in premiumization—or higher-end offerings in terms of price point, performance, and features. For instance, HDTs’ customer mix is changing. As the market matures and the Chinese logistics industry specializes and scales up, we expect a greater share of HDT sales to go to specialized-fleet customers, which have their own professional fleets, or fleet operation platforms. Indeed, we estimate that by 2030, 45 to 50 percent of HDT demand will come from midsize and large fleets, an increase of up to 20 percentage points compared with 2020 (Exhibit 3).To maximize revenue, fleet customers prioritize fleet uptime and efficiency, which requires HDTs to perform better and to be more reliable. And with operating-cost controls designed to reduce the total cost of ownership and improve the ROI of fleet operations, demand for solutions and services related to life cycle cos