2023年丹麦房地产市场展望

MarketOutlook2023 REPORT DENMARKREAL ESTATE CBRERESEARCH Introduction wielcun tu tr 2023 adilicn of cBRE Durirriark's Cutluuk resurt, de zili ny uul perspeclive ur likly trends ini uach sec .or uf Lhe corirler cial It is a difficult cime to forecast how th property market will deve ap. we all thcLght CoviD was diff ult. hut tast wias just ar interlude tchat ve sre experiencing nrw. The bic cha lenges sre high enera: prices, particuilarlv Europeall natursl gas prices and righer interest ratesOn thc ot'r hard. the Europoa cconcmics, in partic ular the Nordic countrise, havc pcrformexl better thar anybcdy thought chey would in2022. The trend ve are going through tends to make the market think qu'te negatively. lrvestors a'e quiet at the moment: many of theT aresitting c tl fence. But tl hange in sentiment will hapoen at or pcint. The baginning of 2023 will orohably be qu t. In Q2, slowvly butsurely, investars s e likely to get ready agsin for resllccaions, starting to buikd s pipe ine. In the secand half of the vear, we are expectirg tcsoo moro deal act vity The 'mpact cf the repricing we are cu rrently exseriencirg wll be substanti=l. but riany indicators poin towards repricing being short-lived.It is nct go'ng to be the s=me tor all locations and all sectors. but it 's going to se material. This is nct very gooc news 'or t aose wto haveinvested in the past three yesrs. Hawever. if vou are lco<ing to invest, the future sudcenly go: much brighter. Th new equil brium will besxetiled among commerclal real estate buyers and sellers as well s3 investor return exxctations. PerAlexandarWeinreich we havo produced this repxorl Lo help you navigalc tho macie onvironmonl wo oxpxel in 2023, ard wo look [orward Lo working wiln yod 01 Economy Keytakeaways Tle Danish economy is prepared for a moderate downturn The past year has witnessed sig riica nt econcmic tluctuaticr s,includin a 4yesr hich inlation and a snsrp inrease in irterestratos. Bascd o cu Tent trends, It $ projccoxdl that thc Danishcccnon1y wi I cnler a rricdorle rocossion in 2023. wilh a prujcc ledGCP growth ct ju s: O. %. However. it is an.icip=tec tnat theeccnomy wi Irecover in 2024, with = projected g'cwth of 2.0%. while traditional inclir:ators sur:h as cp anc: gavernment fi nsnceshave yct to inlicato an imixending reccsskon: othe factors such asinflaLior anc curporalo financial per'ormancc havc boun Locetericrate. Additicnslly, the expectaticn ct rising interest raes hasfurther clc jded the outlock for t ne year ahead. t>onsuImer rnnfidenr:e rlec 'eased materially in 2022, wlir:h impartedrotall sslos slgn ficantly, This im>sct is. howover, bel ovod to bcTolalivoly sholl-livod. Or tho uLhcr han:d, busirossus will rios! likolyba forced tc irnplement cost saving 'Tleasures tc m=intsinprcfita bility, resuling in jca losses and an overall increase inunemp ayment d.Jr ng 223. Hnveve, i: shnt.lM he nnted thatunemp oyment wil only rise moderately as thcr rcrmains demandfol bc.Ir ini woi Luiri suclors. Despite tne indicators pcinting towerc s a recession, there aremitigatirg faatcrs that suggest it will be moc.erate cne. One of themair resscns is the strong fi ancial stancing cf hotl househrldsand c>rporations -he tig ht lalxour markot is furt or cxooctcc topicvenl a sigrificanl increasu ir: u nunployinuril. Ac dilionally, LheDanish econormy has a relatively ow sensitivity tc glotal industrialcycles, Fart ularly due tc the sigrificart presen.e of chepharmace.tica irdus.ry. Hlghastinflatlon lnfour dacadas Inflation isexpectad tonormallse in2023 80% In 2c22. inflation rates in Denmark reashed extraordinarylevels: wr tlh Gonsumer Price Inclex (C:Pi) inf stion reachiG.1% in Gctobol, t has since retructed to 8.7% inDacombe'. Core inf=tion, which 6xcl.ides the volat'leprices ct fcod and energy, vas 6.0%. The spike in coreinflatic was primarily cr ven by rising F:ices of importedards: incicating th st doinestic inflationary pressureswero nol the primary teuso. The underhying price pressures driving irflazion in tleGconomy sre aelieved to ava raacher treir peak due toCerrirricdity p'ices hdv =lso startud to "all after = vuarof tluccuations due to gecpol'tical events. herefore. thedrivers cf inflatian are expected ta lbe resolvec.grsdua ly during 2079. Dr:: ir LDu lc'1 ias :rits.mt eug.2322 coak ancI le Hvel ate end :f202 . Inflaltion ig cxpeclexd Lo decroeso, civen by lowrelenergy prices, irisroving supply bctt engcks. and tighternone=ry solicy. Hcvever, there nay be = celay in thepass-thrcugn af costs tc aonsumers, particularly in the.services waere prices sre likely to be under cantinuedprossuro. As d rosull. inflal n May 1emai slighllyelevated in che near term. The parsistert increase in inflazion in 2022 was prirnarilycriven by a su 'ge in post-covID demanc which vias met.ith hctt anecks in g aa supply c ains. Tne c.ngoingccaflict in ukrsine further exacerhated supplv shortaces,Icadirsi Lo 11 upvard r'essur on pricos for commcdilicssuch s ene