聚烯烃日报：新增产能投产，聚烯烃偏强震荡

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 聚烯烃价格冲高保持偏强震荡，聚烯烃现货价格维持，基差变化不大。市场交投偏谨慎。聚烯烃生产利润持续亏损，成本端支撑延续。宁波金发新增产能40PP顺利投产，近日较多大型装置停车检修，同时前期停车检修装置陆续重启，聚烯烃总体开工负荷小幅提升。石化库存周末累库，上游中游库存去化速率偏慢。需求仍恢复缓慢，国庆中秋假期临近，工厂有备货预期，需求有望较大改善。PE进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口持续关闭。聚烯烃短期预计偏震荡走势。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 库存方面，石化库存66.5万吨，相比上一工作日增加3.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在0元/吨，PP华东基差在-30元/吨，基差变化不大。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油维持强势，LL油头制法与PDH制PP利润维持亏损，PP油头制法深度亏损，未有好转迹象。 宁 波 金 发40PP装置投产一次性开车成功，新增产能压 力持 续释放。四川石化60PE+45PP、兰化榆林40PE、联泓新科20PP等大型装置停车检修，同时停车装置陆续重启，聚烯烃总体开工负荷小幅提升。 进出口方面，PE进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：短期偏震荡走势，暂观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%..............................................................................................................................