钢铁行业周报：成本高位利润承压，静待旺季需求改善

主要观点： 报告日期：2023-09-17 ⚫钢材市场：去库存加速，即将进入钢铁消费旺季，叠加需求端政策刺激，市场供需预期改善。 成本端：原料供应宽松，钢厂对于高价资源的接受程度一般，预计短期内焦煤价格上涨空间有限、原料价格稳定运行。供应端：本周钢材产量仍在低位运行，库存环比下降，旺季即将到来，开工率和产能利用率均有所提升。 高频数据： 执业证书号：S0010121070002邮箱：wangjz@hazq.com联系人：黄玺 1）钢材价格：本周Myspic综合钢价指数+0.82%，其中长材、扁平板分别+1.01%、+0.59%。螺纹钢价格为3824元/吨，环比+2.88%；热轧板卷价格3960元/吨，环比+1.02%。原材料成本：铁矿石价格为879元/吨，环比+6.22%；焦炭价格为2481.5元/吨，环比+7.7%；焦煤价格为1822.5元/吨，环比+10.99%。盈利：螺纹、线材、热轧盘面利润分别为-413.49元/吨、182.11元/吨、-530.69元/吨。 执业证书号：S0010122060011邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 2）产量：冷轧、热轧、线材、中厚板、螺纹产量分别为83.35(+0.29%)/308.9 (-2.09%) /110.03 (-0.23%) /153.87（-3.8%) /247.67 (-2.33%)万吨。开工率：高炉开工率84.07%，环比-0.32pct；电炉开工率63.46%，环比+0.64pct；高炉产能利用率92.65%，环比-0.11pct；电炉产能利用率55.67%，环比-0.15pct。库存：总社库1148.04万吨，环比-2.91 %；总厂库431.36万吨，环比-0.6%；螺纹社库536.89万吨，环比-4.99%；螺纹厂库182.75万吨，环比-1.01%。 刺激地产和鼓励基建政策频出，钢铁消费即将进入旺季。从新基建的角度考虑，中国的管道已进入更新换代阶段，农村的供水排水系统建设粗糙，城镇海绵管网建设也近在眼前，建议关注新兴铸管、金洲管道、友发集团等。作为新能源汽车领域核心金属材料，电工钢也是值得关注的板块，新能源汽车迅速发展带动了电工钢的下游需求，目前板块估值普遍不高，建议关注抚顺特钢、宝钢股份、首钢股份等。 1.钢铁销售即将进入旺季，基本面有望持续改善2023-09-102.供需仍双弱，强复苏预期打高钢价2023-01-153.强复苏预期，社库明显提升，钢价淡季不淡2023-01-08 ⚫投资建议 制造业需求复苏叠加碳达峰、碳中和背景，钢铁行业盈利逻辑得以重构，钢企在周期轮动中进一步受益，我们长期仍然看好钢铁板块。国防军工、航空航天产业高景气度叠加广阔的国产替代空间，高温合金、 特种不锈钢、超高强度钢等产品占据绝对优势地位，建议关注产品结构加速优化的华凌钢铁；不锈钢棒线材及云母提锂龙头永兴材料；冷轧不锈钢领域的高成长性龙头标的甬金股份。 ⚫风险提示 新冠疫情反复；经济下行加快；原材料价格大幅波动；地产用钢需求大幅下滑；钢材去库存化进程受阻。 正文目录 1.1本周钢铁板块走势...............................................................................................................................................................51.2各钢铁板块走势...................................................................................................................................................................5 2.1个股周涨跌幅.......................................................................................................................................................................62.2公司公告...............................................................................................................................................................................6 3.1钢厂盈利情况.......................................................................................................................................................................63.1.1钢材价格............................................................................................................................................................................63.1.2原材料供给........................................................................................................................................................................73.1.3钢材利润测算....................................................................................................................................................................83.2钢材供应情况.......................................................................................................................................................................93.2.1库存....................................................................................................................................................................................93.2.2开工率................................................................................................................................................................................93.2.3产量..................................................................................................................................................................................10风险提示：................................................................................................................................................................................12 图表目录 图表1本周钢铁板块涨跌幅为-1.00百分点（%）......................................................................................................................5图表2本周普钢板块指数上涨、特材板块指数下跌（%）.......................................................................................................5图表3本周涨幅前五名（%）........................................................................................................................................................6图表4本周跌幅前五名（%）.......................................................................................................................................................6图表5公司公告概览......................................................................................................................................................................6图表6MYSPIC普钢指数（点）.......................................................................................................................................................7图表7螺纹钢期现价格（元/吨）.................................................................................................................................................7图表8板材价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................................................................7图表9铁矿石及两焦合约价（元/吨）.....................................................