铅月报：流动性风险增加 铅价波动加剧

流动性风险增加 铅价波动加剧 核心观点及策略 宏观面看，内外均转暖，美国经济下行、就业及通胀回落，加息预期降温，国内重磅政策不断，增强经济企稳回升预期。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 基本面看，内外铅矿供应紧张格局不改，加工费低位走弱。原生铅炼厂复产，供应趋增，但原料紧张及利润不佳，限制生产积极性，恢复量有限。再生铅方面，新增投产及炼厂复产，供应增加，同时加剧了原料废旧电瓶的竞争，价格稳步上沿，成本支撑抬升。9月原生铅及再生铅供应预计小幅增加。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端来看，8月铅蓄电池表现旺季不旺，企业开工小增但同比偏低，铅价大幅上涨，但终端接收度有限，部分电池企业下调开工。但传统消费旺季及政策加持下，启动及动力电池消费仍有期待，储能电池近年发展也较迅猛，后期有望成为消费增量。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，宏观转暖，利多铅价。产业端看，供需存双增预期，多空交织。但目前铅价走势已脱离基本面，国内可交割货源偏紧，且比较仍利多出口，出口增加加剧了国内交割货源紧张的局面。沪铅加权持仓居高不下，流动性风险下，加剧期价波动，预计9月沪铅主力主要运行区间在16000-17500元/吨。 策略建议：逢低做多 风险因素：挤仓风险，需求远低于预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅矿供应恢复较慢，原料维持紧张格局.................................42.1.2原料紧张局面难改，加工费低位下行......................................52.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................62.2.1全球精炼铅供应逐步回升，下半年海外增量或有体现........................62.2.2炼厂复产电解铅产量小增，铅锭出口缓解淡季累库压力......................72.2.3原料价格易涨难跌，再生铅产量缓慢增加..................................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................102.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况....................................................102.3.2铅蓄电池消费旺季不旺.................................................112.3.2 .1铅蓄电池出口窗口关闭，出口量或环比回落.............................112.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性，稳中趋增...........................................122.4内外库存表现分化........................................................13三、总结与后市展望........................................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2全球铅矿月度产量........................................................................................................5图表3国内铅矿产量................................................................................................................5图表4铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表5铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................6图表6银矿砂进口情况............................................................................................................6图表7内外铅矿月度加工费.....................................................................................................6图表8全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................7图表9电解铅产量情况............................................................................................................8图表10原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................8图表11精炼铅出口情况..........................................................................................................8图表12精炼铅出口盈亏情况..................................................................................................8图表13 2022-2023年部分原生铅炼厂电解铅产能变动情况（万吨）.................................8图表14再生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表15再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................9图表16废电池价格延续回落................................................................................................10图表17再生铅企业利润情况.................................................................................................10图表18全球精炼铅月度需求情况........................................................................................10图表19全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况................................................................................10图表20美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................11图表21欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................11图表22铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................12图表23铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................12图表24汽车及新能源汽车产量情况....................................................................................13图表25两轮电动车销量情况................................................................................................13图表26汽车及新能源汽车产量情况....................................................................................13图表27移动通信基站产量情况............................................................................................13图表28 LME库存转降...........................................................................................................14图表29上期所库存呈现增势................................................................................................14图表30交易所仓单低位回升.........................