聚烯烃周报：PE开工好转，下游订单恢复偏慢

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 国产供给预期有所增加，进口货源供给方面随着近期美元汇率持续走高，进口套利窗口关闭，外商出货压力有所增加。需求方面，棚膜及包装类订单继续跟进，部分工厂订单或有所积累，pe开工率升高，在人民币贬值背景下，聚烯烃进口成本抬升，从进口窗口来看聚烯烃估值不高；另外，丙烷坚挺背景下，PDH制PP亦持续亏损，慎防PDH亏损检修增加。而聚烯烃基本面一般，下游订单恢复偏慢，补库积极性有限，中间贸易商库存压力开始积累。建议暂观望。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存62万吨，较上周五+1万吨，库存偏低。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，PE华东基差-50，基差有所走强；PP华东基差-90，基差偏弱。 生产利润及国内开工方面，LL原油制生产利润亏损，PP原油制生产利润持续亏损，PDH制PP生产利润有所降低。卓创PE开工率88.3%（+2.7%），PP开工率87.9%（-2.3%），PP周度开工率减少。 外海美金报价有所反弹，PE进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口处于开关之间，关注后续海外报价的变化情况。 下游复苏情况一般，订单好转偏慢，下游订单及原料库存天数仍维持低位。 ■策略 塑料、PP暂观望。 ■风险 原油价格波动，经济恢复预期及宏观氛围变动 目录 策略摘要..............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点..............................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃基差结构..................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比..............................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃进出口利润..............................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润..............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃库存........................................................................................................................................................................................10 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................4图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................5图4:PE开工率|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................................5图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................5图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图7:PP开工率|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................................5图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................6图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................6图10:LL开工占比|单位：%.............................................................................................................................................................6图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................6图12:LD开工占比|单位：%.............................................................................................................................................................6图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................7图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................7图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................7图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.............................................