聚烯烃周报：PP开工好转，下游复苏一般

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 聚烯烃暂观望。供应方面，聚烯烃国产开工的恢复，新增产能方面8月下旬关注宁波金发及宝丰三期的新增产能压力。下游订单好转仍偏慢，市场预期的下游补库仍未兑现，中间贸易商库存前期去库已放缓而慎防有重新累库压力。近期海外美金价有所反弹，但海外聚烯烃高开工背景下的价格反弹空间有限，关注聚烯烃进口窗口的变化。建议暂观望。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 石化库存61万吨，较上周五+3.5万吨，库存偏低。 基差方面，PE华东基差+0，基差有所走强；PP华东基差-70，基差偏弱。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 生产利润及国内开工方面，LL原油制生产利润亏损，PP原油制生产利润持续亏损，PDH制PP生 产 利 润有 所 降 低。卓 创PE开 工 率85.6%（-0.5） ，PP开 工 率90.2%（+2.6%），PP周度开工率增多。 外海美金报价有所反弹，PE进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口处于开关之间，关注后续海外报价的变化情况。 下游复苏情况一般，订单好转偏慢，下游订单及原料库存天数仍维持低位。 ■策略 塑料、PP暂观望。 ■风险 原油价格波动，经济恢复预期及宏观氛围变动 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................10 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图4:PE开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图7:PP开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................6图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................6图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................6图11:HD开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................6图12:LD开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................6图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................7图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................................7图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................7图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%........................................................................................................................................................7图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................