PVC周报：关注出口持续性，PVC震荡整理

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC价格震荡整理。目前PVC供需基本面变化不大，PVC供应端开工小幅提升；下游制品企业订单无明显改善，且原料采购方面对高价抵触，追涨意向不强；库存维持高位，未能有效去化；利多方面仍来自出口及宏观预期向好。近期国内报价上涨外贸商接单转弱叠加外围装置开工率提升，或由出口因素推动的上涨将告一段落。而宏观预期虽向好，但传导至末端尚需时日。暂维持观望。 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至8月10日，周度平均开工负荷率在70.31%，环比上周提升0.46个百分点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC产量及开工率：截至8月10日，整体开工负荷74.13%，环比提升0.28个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷74.66%，环比提升2.54个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷72.55%，环比下降6.54个百分点。 PVC检修：截至8月10日，停车及检修造成的损失量在7.83万吨，较上周增加0.84万吨。预计下周检修损失量将略增。 PVC库存：截至8月11日，仓库总库存42.21万吨，较上一期减少1.05%，同比增加20.32%。 需求：下游制品企业订单无明显改善，对高价原料抵触情绪显现。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................6图25:PVC社会库存（卓创）丨单位：万吨...