铜月报：稳增长预期强化，铜价宽幅震荡

稳增长预期强化，铜价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 ⚫宏观方面，欧美央行如期加息后对未来的货币政策保持开放态度，美国通胀进入下行通道强化市场对美联储紧缩放缓的预期；政治局会议定调将加大宏观政策调控，加强逆周期调节，着力扩大内需，活跃资本市场，提振大宗消费领域总需求。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 ⚫基本面来看，海外新建矿山项目进展顺利，TC持续攀升；国内产量保持稳定，进口边际改善，国内总体供应趋松。需求端，终端消费步入淡季，传统行业需求减弱，新能源产业用铜需求增长较快但总量有限，预计8月需求将进一步回落。库存结构来看，国内库存先升后降，海外库存低位运行，全球显性库存偏低仍然支撑铜价。 黄蕾021-68556855huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧021-68556855gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫整体来看，我们认为海外央行紧缩预期的缓和叠加国内稳增长政策的预期强化将对铜价形成有力支撑，与此同时，淡季需求减弱或使铜价阶段性承压，铜价将进入宽幅震荡区间。 ⚫预计8月份铜价将保持宽幅震荡走势，沪铜主要波动区间在66000-71000元/吨之间，伦铜的主要波动区间在8200-8900美元/吨之间。 ⚫风险点：欧美核心通胀粘性较强 目录 一、2023年7月铜行情回顾...................................................4二、宏观经济分析............................................................51、欧美央行如期加息，未来政策保持开放态度..........................................................52、美国经济软着陆预期升温，欧元区频现衰退信号..................................................53、稳增长政策落地预期强化，人民币汇率企稳回升..................................................6三、基本面分析..............................................................81、新建项目进展顺利，现货TC持续回升....................................................................82、精铜产量保持稳定......................................................................................................93、7月精铜进口量将边际回升.....................................................................................124、国内库存先升后降，海外库存低位运行................................................................135、新能源产业增速较快，传统行业步入淡季............................................................14四、行情展望...............................................................18 图表目录 图表1铜期货价格走势.................................................................................................................4图表2上海现货铜升贴水走势.....................................................................................................5图表3发达国家GDP增速...........................................................................................................7图表4美欧制造业PMI指数........................................................................................................7图表5中国GDP增速...................................................................................................................7图表6中国PMI指数.....................................................................................................................7图表7 2023年国内铜冶炼厂检修计划（万吨）.........................................................................7图表8 ICSG全球精炼铜供需平衡走势......................................................................................10图表9 ICSG全球精炼铜产量变化..............................................................................................10图表10 ICSG全球精炼铜消费变化............................................................................................10图表11中国铜精矿现货TC走势..............................................................................................11图表12中国进口铜精矿年度长单TC走势...............................................................................11图表13中国铜材产量及增速变化.............................................................................................11图表14中国未锻造铜及铜材进口量及增速变化.....................................................................11图表15中国精炼铜产量变化.....................................................................................................11图表16中国及全球精炼铜消费量变化.....................................................................................11图表17中国精炼铜进口量及增速变化.....................................................................................12图表18中国精炼铜出口量及增速变化.....................................................................................12图表19中国废铜进口单月变化.................................................................................................13图表20中国废铜进口累计变化.................................................................................................13图表21全球显性库存变化.........................................................................................................14图表22 LME铜库存....................................................................................................................14图表23 SHFE和保税区库存走势...............................................................................................14图表24电源投资完成额变化.....................................................................................................16图表25电网投资完成额变化.....................................................................................................16图表26房地产开发投资增速变化..............................................................................................17图表27房地产开工施工和竣工增速变化.................................................................................17图表28家用空调产量增速变化.................................................................................................17图表29家用空调库存变化.........................................................................................................17图表30汽车产量变化.............................................................................