策略 | 2023年7月28日 建银国际证券 2 美国二季度GDP季度年增长率从2.0%上升至2.4%，远高于市场预期，并且再次显示美国经济仍然较强。年初以来市场出现的最大意外之一或许是此前人们普遍预期的美国经济衰退的前景并未出现。 加息通常被视为将商业周期推向衰退的催化剂。自 1970 年以来，在过去 8 次加息周期中，有 6 次都伴随着经济衰退。加息结束与经济衰退开始之间的滞后期为 4-18 个月不等。 随着自 20 世纪 70 年代沃尔克执政以来最快的加息周期到来，经济衰退似乎不可避免。在本报告中，我们试图探讨经济衰退尚未出现的原因，并且讨论衰退是推迟了还是避免了。 首先，大多数短期风险得以避免。欧洲因暖冬而躲过了能源危机，美国债务上限僵局得到解决，中国比预期更早开始经济的稳步重启。尽管通胀仍在持续，但总体通胀得到了控制。 其次，服务业的弹性掩盖了制造业的疲软。  美国制造业可以说已经陷入衰退。制造业 ISM 已连续 8 个月萎缩。相比之下，服务业已连续 6 个月扩张。  欧元区经济也说明了这一现象：依赖制造业的德国陷入衰退，而意大利和法国则表现出色。 我们认为有几个因素可以解释这种差异，其中几个与疫情有关。  对需求恢复的低估。在数年的防疫措施放开后，服务业需求反弹的时间更长、力度更大。这一点在旅游业、餐饮业和现场活动行业最为明显。  疫情期间积累的超额储蓄推动了消费，即使利率上升情境下也是如此。到 2020-21 年，个人储蓄占可支配收入的比例飙升至 14.4%，而 2010-19 年的平均比例为 7.3%。  服务业对利率的敏感度较低，因为服务需求很少由信贷推动。 第三，各种预期之外或者市场忽略的因素为抵御衰退压力做出了贡献。  人工智能的蓬勃发展促进了投资，并产生了积极的财富效应。  尽管采取了限制性货币政策，但财政政策仍起到了支持作用。“拜登经济学 ”刺激政策继续在经济中发挥作用。  企业盈利强于预期，削弱了加息的影响。坊间流传的 "贪婪通胀 "论调认为，企业利用通胀预期升温的机会积极提价，从而使利润增加，利息负担减轻。  积极的政策掩盖了加息周期的症状。在 3 月份的地区银行业动荡中，美国出现了自 2008 年以来最大规模的银行倒闭，但积极的政策阻止了危机的蔓延。  受通货膨胀影响，实际利率的绝对规模并不十分严格。实际收益率在 23 年第二季度才升至正值水平。 因此，预期的 2023 年经济衰退尚未出现。在没有衰退压力抑制需求的情况下，这一直是助长 "更高利率维持更长时间 "论调的主要催化剂。 下个关键问题是，经济衰退是推迟了还是避免了。市场观点大起大落，最近趋向于经济将软着陆，不会出现经济衰退。 我们认为经济衰退得到推迟，但并未得到避免。  紧缩货币政策的滞后效应最终将冷却经济。由于美联储仍在收紧政策，过度收紧的可能性已经上升。  信贷风险稳步上升。银行贷款收紧，对利率敏感的投资低迷。悄然间，破产和违约开始逐渐增多。  疫情后的相关翘尾因素终将正常化。超额储蓄正在耗尽，信用卡债务以 20 年来最快的速度增长，就业市场正在降温。  领先指标继续显示衰退的迹象。避免经济衰退将是历史上首次有如此多的领先指标同时出现错误。 标准普尔 500 指数已接近 4600 点，接近我们预测区间的上限。鉴于估值偏高、散户投资者情绪强劲回升，股相对于债到了在近20年最为昂贵的时刻，以及市场在进入美国股市传统低迷季节时普遍缺乏恐惧感，我们建议轮动进入防御性板块，如公用事业、医疗保健和大宗商品。 全球策略 悬而未决：美国经济衰退为何尚未从预期转为现实 宋林 (852) 3911 8267 lynnsong@ccbintl.com 姜越 (852) 3911 8243 verajiang@ccbintl.com 赵文利 (852) 3911 8279 cliffzhao@ccbintl.com STRATEGY | 28 July 2023 CCBI SECURITIES 3 Mystery of the “missing” US recession Most forecasters were cautious heading into 2023, with the majority expecting a recession to start sometime within the year. The majority of reliable leading indicators started to flash warning signs as early as 4Q22. The Fed had engaged in the most rapid rate hikes since the 1970s, inflation remained high, and various other fears about an energy crisis in Europe, anti-pandemic measures in China, and a debt ceiling standoff in the US added risks to the outlook. All in all, factors pointed to one of the more easily telegraphed recessions in some time; Bloomberg’s 24 month recession probability indicator has remained near 90% since Nov 2022, and surged to an all-time high of 96.9% in early Jul. However, as data has consistently come in favorably in the year to date, and as key policymakers and industry leaders including Powell and Yellen have expressed optimism that the much feared recession has been averted, markets are once again heavily divided. Overall, soft landing hopes have been a key factor in the strength of the US markets since Jun. Chart 1: 24-month recession odds have surged to their highest level in history Chart 2: US economic data consistently surprised on the upside while inflation surprised on the downside Source: CEIC, CCBIS Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS This report attempts to address two key questions: (1) why has a recession not yet materialized, and (2) has the recession been delayed or has it been averted altogether? Why has a recession not materialized? Given the strength of recent labor market and consumption data, and topped off by 2Q23’s stronger than expected GDP release, few would argue that the economy has given strong signs of the start of a recession. We believe a recession has not materialized for several main reasons. First, the majority of the uncertainties from the start of the year have been resolved in a positive manner.  Inflation has moderated, though core inflation remains sticky. Through Jun 2023, US headline inflation has declined for 12 consecutive months, though core inflation remains high and the base effect could lead to a rebound of inflation in 2H23F.  Food and energy shortage fears and price pressures have abated. The potential energy crisis in Europe was averted with a warmer-than-expected winter, and a bumper harvest allowed for an alleviation of food price pressure.  China’s post-pandemic reopening came faster than many expected. This helped alleviate supply chain pressures while also bolstering expectations for global growth.  The US debt ceiling impasse was less intense than expected, with a compromise eventually reached with relatively few complications. Second, the strength of the services sector has overshadowed the manufacturing sector, which has arguably already fallen into a recession. 010203040506070809010092949698000204060810121416182022Bloomberg US recession odds (%)Recession6 Months12 Months24 Months(%)-60-40-20020406080100-200-150-100-5005010015020025030003040506070809101112131415161718192021222324US economic surprise index, LHSUS inflation surprise index, RHS STRATEGY | 28 July 2023 CCBI SECURITIES 4 When looking at the manufacturing sect