6月中国新能源车产销同比增超30%，广期所碳酸锂期货上市在即

陈祎萱有色金属分析师从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 上周锂盐价格小幅下挫，SMM电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货均价环比-1.3%至30.4万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂（99.2%）现货均价环比-1.4%至29万元/吨，溧阳中联金碳酸锂2307合约收盘价环比-1.2%至29万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、为1.35万元/吨，碳酸锂现货较远期合约升水环比收窄0.05万元至1.35万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格环比下行，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型氢氧化锂均价环比分别-2.1%、-2.0%至28、29.4万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂价格较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔0.2万元至2.4万元/吨。 据中汽协，6月新能源汽车产销分别完成78.4万辆和80.6万辆，同比分别增长32.8%和35.2%，环比分别增长10.0%和12.5%。1-6月中国新能源车产销分别完成378.8万辆和374.7万辆，同比分别增长42.4%和44.1%。目前来看，新能源车终端下游环比改善节奏数月低于初端下游正极材料厂的产量增幅，对应着下游各环节中或有一定库存留存。在此情况下，终端需求显著改善且订单有效向上传导前，我们认为下游对锂价进一步上涨的接受力并不高。另一方面，近期锂精矿现货价格持续下调，各第三方机构的现货锂精矿价格均回落至3500-3800美元/吨附近，对应碳酸锂成本支撑来到25万元/吨一线，此外澳矿也将于近期陆续公布二季度锂精矿的实际售价，成本支撑料将逐步转弱。近期锂盐现货市场持稳运行、电碳现货均价围绕30万元/吨一线窄幅震荡，主因当前市场流通货源偏紧、下游的刚需采买给到价格一定支撑作用。广期所碳酸锂将于下周五（7月21日）正式挂牌交易，考虑到其第一个可交易合约为LC2401，上市初期其定价逻辑或在即期强现实与远端弱预期间快速切换，期货价格随之波动，并可能通过市场情绪进一步传导至现货市场，建议投资者谨慎参与。 渠道库存渐出清，行业信心待修复2023/03/30将至已至，何时企稳？2023/03/09拐点将至，节奏何如？2022/12/17基本面拐点待确认，锂盐谨慎乐观2022/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、6月中国新能源车产销同比增超30%，广期所碳酸锂期货上市在即............................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：周内锂精矿现货价格继续下调........................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：价格小幅下调........................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：LFP报价环比持平，三元材料报价环比下行.........................................................................................83.4、终端：6月中国新能源车产销环比+10%......................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................10 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................6图表5：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂期现价差........................................................................................................................................................................7图表7：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表8：国内氢氧化锂现货均价....................................................................................................................................................................7图表9：海内外氢氧化锂价差........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表11：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................8图表13：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................8图表14：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价................................................................................................................................................9图表16：钴酸锂价格走势...............................................................................................................................................