聚烯烃日报：期货市场持续走强，现货支撑走高

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 受甲醇连续上涨气氛带动PP上涨。部分石化调涨出厂价格，然现货市场交易积极性一般，工厂谨慎观望，坚持随用随拿。国内开工回升，特别是PP7月检修量级快速缩窄，供应压力回升；而海外装置开工尚可，聚烯烃价格上方进口窗口的压力仍在。而下游订单仍等待好转，中游环节去库速率放缓。赞观望 梁宗泰(020-83901031*liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉(020-83901030*cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 库存方面，石化库存68万吨，相比昨日-2.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在-30元/吨，PP华东基差在-30元/吨，基差稳定。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 生产利润及国内开工方面，LL油头法生产利润稳定，油制PP生产利润亏损，PDH制PP利润维持高位震荡。 非标价差及非标生产比例方面，HD注塑-LL略有回落，对标品LL有一定的提振作用。PP低融共聚-PP拉丝价格持续拉升，对PP标品供应上有利好作用。 进出口方面，PP窗口已打开，PE进口窗口已打开，进口窗口限制反弹空间。 ■策略 （1）单边：将维持震荡局势，关注下游补库情况，建议观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化，人民币贬值风险。 目录 策略摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................1聚烯烃日度表格.........................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构.........................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率..........................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比......................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润...................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润....................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃库存...............................................................................................................................................................................12 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：% ..........................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：% ..........................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：% ...................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.............