食品饮料行业周报：看好白酒迎反弹，关注端午动销反馈
2023年06月18日看好白酒迎反弹，关注端午动销反馈—食品饮料行业周报推荐(维持)投资要点分析师：孙山山S1050521110005sunss@cfsc.com.cn分析师：何宇航S1050522090002heyh1@cfsc.com.cn行业相对表现表现1M3M12M食品饮料(申万)-5.4-12.7-5.5沪深300-4.2-6.5-5.6市场表现资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究相关研究1、《食品饮料行业周报：重视股东大会反馈，板块整体稳中向上》2023-05-282、《食品饮料行业周报：底部强推白酒，大众品个股行情》2023-05-213、《食品饮料行业周报：去库存仍是主线，大众品强复苏途中》2023-05-14▌一周新闻速递行业新闻：1）上海：调整酒类商品经营许可。2）贵州新增10亿酱酒园区建设项目。公司新闻：1）贵州茅台：茅台品牌价值超6000亿。2）水井坊：暂无开发酱香酒计划。3）百润股份：5亿扩建生产基地。▌投资观点当前我们仍维持之前子板块顺序：白酒>啤酒>休闲食品=软饮料>速冻食品>调味品>乳制品。白酒板块：当前白酒板块处于历史较低位置，关注股东大会反馈及下周端午节动销反馈，我们看好白酒迎反弹，继续重点推荐2+4+3产品矩阵，即泸州老窖+五粮液+次高端四杰+老白干酒+金种子酒+今世缘，关注洋河股份和古井贡酒。大众品板块：当前大众品板块处于淡季，餐饮端仍在弱复苏阶段，原材料等处于下行区间，建议关注端午餐饮渠道复苏及边际改善个股。现阶段重点推荐3+3+3+3产品矩阵，即休闲食品三剑客（盐津铺子+甘源食品+劲仔食品）+啤酒三杰（重庆啤酒+青岛啤酒+燕京啤酒）+调味品三杰（中炬高新+日辰股份+晨光生物）+预期差三杰（涪陵榨菜+佳禾食品+道道全）。维持食品饮料行业“推荐”投资评级。▌风险提示疫情波动风险；宏观经济波动风险；推荐公司业绩不及预期的风险；行业竞争风险；食品安全风险；行业政策变动风险；消费税或生产风险；原材料价格波动风险等。证券研究报告行业研究 证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2诚信、专业、稳健、高效重点关注公司及盈利预测公司代码名称2023/6/16股价EPSPE投资评级2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E600519.SH贵州茅台1797.6958.2667.6577.7530.8626.5723.12买入000858.SZ五粮液184.088.059.3210.6622.8719.7517.27买入000568.SZ泸州老窖232.608.6610.5712.7326.8622.0118.27买入600809.SH山西汾酒219.978.6310.6913.0525.4920.5816.86买入002304.SZ洋河股份145.157.488.9710.5919.4116.1813.71买入000799.SZ酒鬼酒97.994.014.915.9524.4419.9616.47买入600702.SH舍得酒业146.966.458.049.8722.7818.2814.89买入600779.SH水井坊64.752.923.413.9222.1718.9916.52买入000596.SZ古井贡酒267.907.759.6711.9534.5727.7022.42买入603369.SH今世缘59.372.643.344.1722.4917.7814.24买入603589.SH口子窖55.953.163.724.3317.7115.0412.92买入603198.SH迎驾贡酒63.262.763.454.2322.9218.3414.96买入600199.SH金种子酒25.990.040.190.39649.75136.7966.64买入603919.SH金徽酒25.160.791.031.3031.8524.4319.35买入600197.SH伊力特29.230.731.131.5740.0425.8718.62买入600559.SH老白干酒28.260.831.111.4234.0525.4619.90买入603288.SH海天味业51.051.471.701.9534.7330.0326.18买入603027.SH千禾味业21.650.480.610.7745.1035.4928.12买入603317.SH天味食品15.430.410.530.6837.6329.1122.69买入600872.SH中炬高新39.261.021.211.4138.4932.4527.84买入002507.SZ涪陵榨菜18.851.121.311.5216.8314.3912.40买入600305.SH恒顺醋业11.170.190.240.3058.7946.5437.23买入603755.SH日辰股份31.330.931.241.6533.6925.2718.99买入603170.SH宝立食品21.790.680.861.0832.0425.3420.18买入300999.SZ金龙鱼41.340.981.281.6642.1832.3024.90买入300908.SZ仲景食品47.291.661.912.1728.4924.7621.79买入600298.SH安琪酵母37.201.682.042.3922.1418.2415.56买入300138.SZ晨光生物18.121.021.271.5817.7614.2711.47买入300755.SZ华致酒行25.661.702.363.1115.0910.878.25买入605499.SH东鹏饮料178.824.675.977.4138.2929.9524.13买入603711.SH香飘飘21.110.680.830.9831.0425.4321.54买入605337.SH李子园19.651.021.221.4619.2616.1113.46买入600132.SH重庆啤酒99.583.193.844.5631.2225.9321.84买入600600.SH青岛啤酒105.923.323.884.4431.9027.3023.86买入603345.SH安井食品158.315.166.758.4530.6823.4518.73买入603517.SH绝味食品40.801.361.782.3130.0022.9217.66买入603057.SH紫燕食品24.700.981.241.5525.2019.9215.94买入002847.SZ盐津铺子85.022.383.214.2135.7226.4920.19买入603719.SH良品铺子28.231.011.201.3827.9523.5320.46买入002991.SZ甘源食品77.002.593.494.6129.7322.0616.70买入 证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3诚信、专业、稳健、高效002557.SZ洽洽食品43.262.192.532.9019.7517.1014.92买入003000.SZ劲仔食品13.490.370.470.5836.4628.7023.26买入605338.SH巴比食品25.661.071.301.5723.9819.7416.34买入300973.SZ立高食品71.241.943.305.1336.7221.5913.89买入002216.SZ三全食品16.050.991.141.3016.2114.0812.35买入600882.SH妙可蓝多23.360.660.961.4235.3924.3316.45买入001215.SZ千味央厨72.611.702.252.9242.7132.2724.87买入资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4诚信、专业、稳健、高效正文目录1、一周新闻速递............................................................................61.1、行业新闻.........................................................................61.2、公司新闻.........................................................................62、本周重点公司反馈.......................................................................82.1、本周行业涨跌幅...................................................................82.2、公司公告.........................................................................82.3、本周公司涨跌幅...................................................................102.4、食品饮料行业核心数据趋势一览.....................................................122.5、重点公司信息反馈.................................................................163、投资观点...............................................................................174、风险提示...............................................................................19图表目录图表1：本周行业涨跌幅一览(%)...........................................................8图表2：本周食品饮料重点上市公司公告....................................................8图表3：食品饮料重点公司一周涨跌幅一览..................................................10图表4：2022年白酒产量671.20万吨，同-6.2%.............................................12图表5：2022年白酒行业营收6626亿元，同+9.64%..........................................12图表6：调味品行业市场规模从2014年2595亿增至2020年3950亿，6年CAGR为7%.............12图表7：百强调味品企业收入从2013年700亿增至2020年1627亿，7年CAGR为13%.............12图表8：全国大豆市场价（元/吨）.........................................................13图表9：白砂糖现货价（元/吨）...........................................................13图表10：国内PET切片现货价(纤维级):国内（元/吨）.......................................13图表11：瓦楞纸市场均价（元/吨）........................................................13图表12：2022年啤酒行业产量3569万千升，同+0.2%...................................
